IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/retrec/v88y2021ics0739885920300846.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The role of public and private transport infrastructure capital in economic growth. Evidence from Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Batool, Irem
  • Goldmann, Kathrin

Abstract

Within the context of large investments in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which is part of China's Belt and Road Initiative, the investigation of the effect of transport infrastructure investments on economic growth is highly relevant for Pakistan. We analyse this relationship applying vector error correction models, Granger Causality tests, and impulse response analyses. We employ multiple model specifications to study the impact of private vs. public capital as well as physical capital stocks vs. monetary capital stocks on economic growth. In models including private capital stocks, we find support for the production function relation as causality goes from infrastructure to GDP. In models that include public capital stocks, causality goes from GDP to transport investments, thus favouring Wagner's law. Therefore we conclude that focusing on a good legal environment for private investors seems to be a good option for promoting growth in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Batool, Irem & Goldmann, Kathrin, 2021. "The role of public and private transport infrastructure capital in economic growth. Evidence from Pakistan," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:88:y:2021:i:c:s0739885920300846
    DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2020.100886
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0739885920300846
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.retrec.2020.100886?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adolph Wagner, 1958. "Three Extracts on Public Finance," International Economic Association Series, in: Richard A. Musgrave & Alan T. Peacock (ed.), Classics in the Theory of Public Finance, pages 1-15, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-1393, November.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 121-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Francois, Joseph & Manchin, Miriam, 2013. "Institutions, Infrastructure, and Trade," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 165-175.
    6. Era Dabla-Norris & Jim Brumby & Annette Kyobe & Zac Mills & Chris Papageorgiou, 2012. "Investing in public investment: an index of public investment efficiency," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 235-266, September.
    7. Angel de la Fuente & Rafael Doménech, 2006. "Human Capital in Growth Regressions: How Much Difference Does Data Quality Make?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1-36, March.
    8. John Cockburn & Yazid Dissou & Jean-Yves Duclos & Luca Tiberti (ed.), 2013. "Infrastructure and Economic Growth in Asia," Economic Studies in Inequality, Social Exclusion, and Well-Being, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-319-03137-8, July.
    9. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    10. Melo, Patricia C. & Graham, Daniel J. & Brage-Ardao, Ruben, 2013. "The productivity of transport infrastructure investment: A meta-analysis of empirical evidence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 695-706.
    11. Niloy Bose & M. Emranul Haque, 2005. "Causality Between Public Investment In Transport And Communication And Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 95-106, June.
    12. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    13. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-355, December.
    14. Elburz, Zeynep & Nijkamp, Peter & Pels, Eric, 2017. "Public infrastructure and regional growth: Lessons from meta-analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-8.
    15. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    16. Christophe Kamps, 2006. "New Estimates of Government Net Capital Stocks for 22 OECD Countries, 1960-2001," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(1), pages 1-6.
    17. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2010. "Cointegration, long-run structural modelling and weak exogeneity: Two models of the UK economy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 108-116, September.
    18. Lakshmanan, T.R., 2011. "The broader economic consequences of transport infrastructure investments," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-12.
    19. Ali, Amjad & Ur Rehman, Hafeez, 2015. "Macroeconomic Instability and Its Impact on Gross Domestic Product: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 82496, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    20. Ahmed, Vaqar & Abbas, Ahsan & Ahmed, Sofia, 2013. "Public Infrastructure and economic growth in Pakistan: a dynamic CGE-microsimulation analysis," PEP Working Papers 164414, Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP).
    21. Muhammad Javid, 2019. "Public and Private Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth in Pakistan: An Aggregate and Disaggregate Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, June.
    22. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    23. Shruti Tripathi & Vikash Gautam, 2010. "Road Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth in India," Journal of Infrastructure Development, India Development Foundation, vol. 2(2), pages 135-151, December.
    24. Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen & Carsten Trenkler, 2001. "Maximum eigenvalue versus trace tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 1-8.
    25. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    26. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871, January.
    27. Stefan Mittnik & Thorsten Neumann, 2001. "Dynamic effects of public investment: Vector autoregressive evidence from six industrialized countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 429-446.
    28. Raymond Batina, 1998. "On the Long Run Effects of Public Capital and Disaggregated Public Capital on Aggregate Output," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 5(3), pages 263-281, July.
    29. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    30. Ejaz Ghani & Musleh-Ud Din, 2006. "The Impact of Public Investment on Economic Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 87-98.
    31. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    32. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    33. Vaqar Ahmed & Ahsan Abbas & Saira Ahmed, 2013. "Public Infrastructure and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Dynamic CGE-Microsimulation Analysis," Economic Studies in Inequality, Social Exclusion, and Well-Being, in: John Cockburn & Yazid Dissou & Jean-Yves Duclos & Luca Tiberti (ed.), Infrastructure and Economic Growth in Asia, edition 127, pages 117-143, Springer.
    34. Michael D. Bordo & Alan M. Taylor & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "Globalization in Historical Perspective," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord03-1.
    35. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    36. Maparu, Tuhin Subhra & Mazumder, Tarak Nath, 2017. "Transport infrastructure, economic development and urbanization in India (1990–2011): Is there any causal relationship?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 319-336.
    37. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & John H. Hall & Sahar Bahmani, 2014. "Causal nexus between economic growth, banking sector development, stock market development, and other macroeconomic variables: The case of ASEAN countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 155-173, November.
    38. Holmgren, Johan & Merkel, Axel, 2017. "Much ado about nothing? – A meta-analysis of the relationship between infrastructure and economic growth," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 13-26.
    39. Alicia H. Munnell, 1992. "Policy Watch: Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 189-198, Fall.
    40. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Bagchi, Tapan P., 2013. "Effect of transportation infrastructure on economic growth in India: The VECM approach," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 139-148.
    41. Ward Romp & Jakob De Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(S1), pages 6-52, April.
    42. Khalifa Ghali, 1998. "Public investment and private capital formation in a vector error-correction model of growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 837-844.
    43. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2010. "The worldwide governance indicators : methodology and analytical issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5430, The World Bank.
    44. Shahrukh Rafi Khan & Mohammad Irfan, 1985. "Rates of Returns to Education and the Determinants of Earnings in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 24(3-4), pages 671-683.
    45. Atif Ansar & Bent Flyvbjerg & Alexander Budzier & Daniel Lunn, 2016. "Does infrastructure investment lead to economic growth or economic fragility? Evidence from China," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 32(3), pages 360-390.
    46. Cosimo Magazzino & Eva Valleri, 2012. "Public Capital, Employmentand Total Factor Productivity: Evidence From Italian Transport Sector," Articles, International Journal of Transport Economics, vol. 39(1).
    47. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521839198, January.
    48. Kitlinski, Tobias, 2015. "The robustness of the effects of public investment in infrastructure on private output: Evidence for Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 560, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    49. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    50. Straub, Stephane & Vellutini, Charles & Warlters, Michael, 2008. "Infrastructure and economic growth in East Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4589, The World Bank.
    51. Ahmed, Vaqar & Abbas, Ahsan & Ahmed, Sofia, 2013. "Public infrastructure and economic growth in Pakistan," PEP Policy Briefs 159855, Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP).
    52. Christophe Kamps, 2006. "New Estimates of Government Net Capital Stocks for 22 OECD Countries, 1960-2001," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(1), pages 1-6.
    53. Paul M. Romer, 1994. "The Origins of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 3-22, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Syed Abdul Rehman Khan & Ridwan Lanre Ibrahim & Abul Quasem Al-Amin & Zhang Yu, 2022. "An Ideology of Sustainability under Technological Revolution: Striving towards Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-21, April.
    2. Zunaira Khadim & Irem Batool & Ahsan Akbar & Petra Poulova & Minahs Akbar, 2021. "Mapping the Moderating Role of Logistics Performance of Logistics Infrastructure on Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-12, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohmand, Yasir Tariq & Mehmood, Fahad & Mughal, Khurrum Shahzad & Aslam, Faheem, 2021. "Investigating the causal relationship between transport infrastructure, economic growth and transport emissions in Pakistan," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Muhammad Javid, 2019. "Public and Private Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth in Pakistan: An Aggregate and Disaggregate Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, June.
    3. Alam, Khalid Mehmood & Li, Xuemei & Baig, Saranjam & Ghanem, Osman & Hanif, Salman, 2021. "Causality between transportation infrastructure and economic development in Pakistan: An ARDL analysis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    4. Ward Romp & Jakob De Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(S1), pages 6-52, April.
    5. Pedro R.D. Bom & Jenny E. Ligthart, 2014. "What Have We Learned From Three Decades Of Research On The Productivity Of Public Capital?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 889-916, December.
    6. Leiva, Benjamin & Liu, Zhongyuan, 2019. "Energy and economic growth in the USA two decades later: Replication and reanalysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 89-99.
    7. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    8. Maparu, Tuhin Subhra & Mazumder, Tarak Nath, 2017. "Transport infrastructure, economic development and urbanization in India (1990–2011): Is there any causal relationship?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 319-336.
    9. Gupta, Sanjeev & Kangur, Alvar & Papageorgiou, Chris & Wane, Abdoul, 2014. "Efficiency-Adjusted Public Capital and Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 164-178.
    10. Välilä, Timo, 2020. "Infrastructure and growth: A survey of macro-econometric research," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 39-49.
    11. Pedro R.D. Bom & Jenny E. Ligthart, 2009. "How Productive is Public Capital? A Meta-Regression Analysis," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0912, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    12. Roberto Martínez-Espiñeira, 2007. "An Estimation of Residential Water Demand Using Co-Integration and Error Correction Techniques," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 161-184, May.
    13. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis & Christos Karpetis, 2020. "The Defense–Growth Nexus: A Review of Time Series Methods and Empirical Results," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 86-104, January.
    14. Zheng Fang & Marcin Wolski, 2021. "Human capital, energy and economic growth in China: evidence from multivariate nonlinear Granger causality tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 607-632, February.
    15. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Pires Manso, José R., 2012. "Does Portuguese economy support crude oil conservation hypothesis?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 628-634.
    16. Senay ACIKGOZ & Anil AKCAGLAYAN, 2014. "Turkiye’de Cari Islemler Aciginin Surdurulebilirligi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 14(1), pages 83-97.
    17. Peterson, Steven K. & Jessup, Eric L., 2008. "Evaluating the Relationship Between Transportation Infrastructure and Economic Activity: Evidence from Washington State," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 47(2).
    18. Elżbieta Szaruga & Elżbieta Załoga, 2022. "Environmental Management from the Point of View of the Energy Intensity of Road Freight Transport and Shocks," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-22, November.
    19. Ahmed, Riaz, 2016. "Social infrastructure and productivity of manufacturing firms: Evidence from Pakistan," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-038, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    20. Pedro R. D. Bom & Jenny Ligthart, 2008. "How Productive is Public Capital? A Meta-Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2206, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Transport infrastructure; Cointegration; VAR-Models; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:88:y:2021:i:c:s0739885920300846. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/620614/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.