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Testing the martingale restriction for option implied densities

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  • Thomas Busch

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  • Thomas Busch, 2008. "Testing the martingale restriction for option implied densities," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 61-81, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:revdev:v:11:y:2008:i:1:p:61-81
    DOI: 10.1007/s11147-008-9024-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
    2. Berkowitz, Jeremy, 2001. "Testing Density Forecasts, with Applications to Risk Management," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 465-474, October.
    3. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. "Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-1632, December.
    5. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October.
    6. Kreps,David M. & Wallis,Kenneth F. (ed.), 1997. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521589833.
    7. Deo, Rohit S., 2000. "Spectral tests of the martingale hypothesis under conditional heteroscedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 291-315, December.
    8. Harrison, J. Michael & Pliska, Stanley R., 1981. "Martingales and stochastic integrals in the theory of continuous trading," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 215-260, August.
    9. René Garcia & Eric Ghysels & Eric Renault, 2004. "The Econometrics of Option Pricing," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-04, CIRANO.
    10. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:1:p:407-446 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Paul L. Fackler & Robert P. King, 1990. "Calibration of Option-Based Probability Assessments in Agricultural Commodity Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(1), pages 73-83.
    12. Bates, David S, 1991. "The Crash of '87: Was It Expected? The Evidence from Options Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 1009-1044, July.
    13. Kreps,David M. & Wallis,Kenneth F. (ed.), 1997. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521589819.
    14. Yacine Aït-Sahalia, 2001. "Transition Densities For Interest Rate And Other Nonlinear Diffusions," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Marco Avellaneda (ed.), Quantitative Analysis In Financial Markets Collected Papers of the New York University Mathematical Finance Seminar(Volume II), chapter 1, pages 1-34, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-883, November.
    16. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Wang, Yubo & Yared, Francis, 2001. "Do option markets correctly price the probabilities of movement of the underlying asset?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 67-110, May.
    17. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
    18. Bliss, Robert R. & Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos, 2002. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 381-422, March.
    19. Bates, David S., 2003. "Empirical option pricing: a retrospection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 387-404.
    20. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
    21. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 1999. "Option Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Implied Binomial Trees: A Literature Review," MPRA Paper 11634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    23. Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos & Skiadopoulos, George, 2004. "A new approach to modeling the dynamics of implied distributions: Theory and evidence from the S&P 500 options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1499-1520, July.
    24. Kreps,David M. & Wallis,Kenneth F. (ed.), 1997. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521589826.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ching-Ping Wang & Hung-Hsi Huang & Chien-Chia Hung, 2011. "Implied Index And Option Pricing Errors: Evidence From The Taiwan Option Market," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 5(2), pages 115-125.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Density forecasting; Hypothesis testing; Option implied densities; Risk management; Time series; C12; C52; C53; G13;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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