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Measuring Knightian uncertainty

Author

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  • Andreas Dibiasi

    (Aix-Marseille University)

  • David Iselin

    (Bernisches Historisches Museum)

Abstract

Knightian uncertainty represents a situation in which it is no longer possible to form expectations about future events. We propose a method to directly measure Knightian uncertainty. Our approach relies on firm-level data and measures the share of firms that do not formalize expectations about their future demand. We construct the Knightian Uncertainty Indicator for Switzerland and show that the indicator is able to identify times of high uncertainty. We evaluate the indicator by comparing it to established uncertainty measures. We find that a one standard deviation innovation of the Knightian Uncertainty Indicator leads to a negative and persistent reduction of investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Dibiasi & David Iselin, 2021. "Measuring Knightian uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 2113-2141, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:61:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-021-02106-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-021-02106-3
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    Cited by:

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    2. Pooja Thakur-Wernz & Helena Barnard & Marianne Matthee, 2024. "Knightian uncertain violence and the challenge of FDI-assisted development: policy recommendations where civilian lives are at risk," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(3), pages 356-390, September.
    3. Oscar Claveria, 2020. "Business and consumer uncertainty in the face of the pandemic: A sector analysis in European countries," Papers 2012.02091, arXiv.org.
    4. Oscar Claveria & Petar Sorić, 2023. "Labour market uncertainty after the irruption of COVID-19," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1897-1945, April.
    5. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "On the Aggregation of Survey-Based Economic Uncertainty Indicators Between Different Agents and Across Variables," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 1-26, April.
    6. Claveria, Oscar, 2022. "Global economic uncertainty and suicide: Worldwide evidence," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    7. Qingyuan Li & Edward L. Maydew & Richard H. Willis & Li Xu, 2022. "Corporate tax behavior and political uncertainty: Evidence from national elections around the world," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(9-10), pages 1605-1641, October.
    8. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Disagreement on expectations: firms versus consumers," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(12), pages 1-23, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Knight; Uncertainty; Measurement; Business survey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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