Communicating uncertainty - a fan chart for HICP projections
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- Michal Franta & Jozef Barunik & Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova, 2011. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful for Central Banks? Uncertainty, Forecasting, and Financial Stability Stress Tests," Working Papers 2011/10, Czech National Bank.
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- Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.
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More about this item
Keywords
Inflation; forecasts; fan chart;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-MAC-2014-11-12 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2014-11-12 (Monetary Economics)
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