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Communicating uncertainty - a fan chart for HICP projections

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  • Gatt, William

Abstract

A short article which motivates the use of a fan chart in the communication of forecasts, with special emphasis on inflation forecasts. A fan chart for Maltese HICP inflation projections is built, using the history of forecast errors.

Suggested Citation

  • Gatt, William, 2014. "Communicating uncertainty - a fan chart for HICP projections," MPRA Paper 59603, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59603
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/59603/1/MPRA_paper_59603.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michal Franta & Jozef Barunik & Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova, 2011. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful for Central Banks? Uncertainty, Forecasting, and Financial Stability Stress Tests," Working Papers 2011/10, Czech National Bank.
    2. Blake, Andrew P., 1996. "Forecast Error Bounds By Stochastic Simulation," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 156, pages 72-79, May.
    3. Gatt, William, 2013. "Forecasting inflation at the Central Bank of Malta�," MPRA Paper 56876, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; forecasts; fan chart;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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