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Rational Expectations and Agricultural Policy: An Econometric Application to the U.S. Dairy Economy

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  • Thraen, Cameron S.

Abstract

The conceptual and econometric implications of the rational expectations paradigm for modelling producers' expectations are derived for a simple macro-economic model of the dairy producing sector. It is demonstrated that the parameters of the estimated reducedform equations are functions of the speafic dairy price-support rule in effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Thraen, Cameron S., 1982. "Rational Expectations and Agricultural Policy: An Econometric Application to the U.S. Dairy Economy," 1982 Annual Meeting, August 1-4, Logan, Utah 279141, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea82:279141
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.279141
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marc Nerlove, 1979. "The Dynamics of Supply: Retrospect and Prospect," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(5), pages 874-888.
    2. Thomas J. Sargent, 1980. "Rational expectations and the reconstruction of macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 4(Sum).
    3. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    4. Hoffman, Dennis L. & Schmidt, Peter, 1981. "Testing the restrictions implied by the rational expectations hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 265-287, February.
    5. Heien, Dale, 1977. "The Cost of the U.S. Dairy Price Support Program: 1949-74," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(1), pages 1-8, February.
    6. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1980. "Econometric Implications of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 49-73, January.
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