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Real effects of anticipated and unanticipated money : Some problems of estimation and hypothesis testing

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  • Buiter, Willem H.

Abstract

The paper addresses two issues that arise in estimation of testing of the real effects of anticipated and unanticipated money. First it is shown that identification of the effects of unanticipated (or unperceived) monetary growth on real output is possible only if the a priori restrict ion is imposed that monetary growth does not depend on unanticipated (or unperceived) output. Second, it is shown that anticipated money can enter "semi-reduced form" output equations of the kind estimated by Barro, through three additional channels not allowed for in existing empirical work. These are 1) past and present anticipations of future monetary growth (the inflation tax channel), 2) expectations of monetary growth in a given period conditioned at various preceding dates (the Fischer-Phelps-Taylor effect) and 3) past and present revisions in forecasts of monetary growth (the Turnovsky-Weiss effect). The presence of the first of these would mean that alternative open-loop monetary growth rules have real effects. The presence of the other two implies that monetary feedback rules can have real effects.
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  • Buiter, Willem H., 1983. "Real effects of anticipated and unanticipated money : Some problems of estimation and hypothesis testing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 207-224.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:11:y:1983:i:2:p:207-224
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    1. Buiter, Willem H, 1981. "The Superiority of Contingent Rules over Fixed Rules in Models with Rational Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(363), pages 647-670, September.
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    1. Mulder, C.B., 1986. "Testing Korteweg's rational expectations model for a small open economy," Other publications TiSEM c52e6c80-834d-49c7-ae6a-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Gottschalk, Jan, 2002. "Keynesian and monetarist views on the German unemployment problem: theory and evidence," Kiel Working Papers 1096, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. William H. Branson, 1984. "Exchange Rate Policy after a Decade of "Floating"," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 79-118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gianluca Cubadda & Domenico Mignacca, 1994. "Is Money Neutral? Some Evidence for Italy," International Finance 9410001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Nov 1994.
    5. Ajisafe, Rufus A. & Adesina, Kehinde E. & Okunade, Solomon O., 2022. "Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Monetary Policy on Output in Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(2), March.
    6. K. Alec Chrystal, 1984. "Money and sectoral output dynamics in the United States, quarterly 1950/III to 1982/IV," Working Papers 1984-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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