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Fractional integration and the dynamics of UK unemployment

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  • Gil-Alaña, Luis A.
  • Henry, Brian

Abstract

This article is concerned with the dynamic behaviour of UK unemployment. However, instead of using traditional approaches based on I(0) stationary or I(1) (integrated and/or cointegrated) models, we use the fractional integration framework. In doing so, we allow for a more careful study of the low frequency dynamics underlying the series. The conclusions suggest that the UK unemployment may be explained in terms of lagged values of the real oil prices and the real interest rate, with the order of integration of unemployment ranging between 0.50 and 1. Thus, unemployment shows the characteristics of long memory but is mean reverting.

Suggested Citation

  • Gil-Alaña, Luis A. & Henry, Brian, 2000. "Fractional integration and the dynamics of UK unemployment," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,14, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    long memory; unemployment; fractional integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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