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Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation

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  • Markku Lanne

    (School of Business and Economics, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland)

Abstract

According to several empirical studies US inflation and nominal interest rates as well as the real interest rate can be described as unit root processes. These results imply that nominal interest rates and expected inflation do not move one-for-one in the long run, which is incongruent with theoretical models. In this paper we introduce a new nonlinear bivariate mixture autoregressive model that seems to fit quarterly US data (1953 : II-2004 : IV) reasonably well. It is found that the three-month Treasury bill rate and inflation share a common nonlinear component that explains a large part of their persistence. The real interest rate is devoid of this component, indicating one-for-one movement of the nominal interest rate and inflation in the long run and, hence, stationarity of the real interest rate. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Markku Lanne, 2006. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1157-1168.
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:21:y:2006:i:8:p:1157-1168
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.908
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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