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The Importance of Time‐Series Extrapolation for Macroeconomic Expectations

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  • Michael W. M. Roos
  • Ulrich Schmidt

Abstract

This paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast inflation and GDP growth. By varying the information provided in different treatments, we can assess the importance of historical time-series information versus information acquired outside the experimental setting such as knowledge of expert forecasts. It turns out that the availability of historical data has a dominant impact on expectations and wipes out the influence of outside-lab information completely. Consequently, backward-looking behavior can be identified unambiguously as a decisive factor in expectation formation.
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  • Michael W. M. Roos & Ulrich Schmidt, 2012. "The Importance of Time‐Series Extrapolation for Macroeconomic Expectations," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13(2), pages 196-210, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:13:y:2012:i:2:p:196-210
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    2. De Grauwe, Paul & Gerba, Eddie, 2018. "The role of cognitive limitations and heterogeneous expectations for aggregate production and credit cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 206-236.
    3. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2014. "Inflation Expectations, Learning and Supermarket Prices," NBER Working Papers 20576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    5. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2012. "Identification of animal spirits in a bounded rationality model: An application to the euro area," Kiel Working Papers 1798, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Salle, Isabelle & Yıldızoğlu, Murat & Sénégas, Marc-Alexandre, 2013. "Inflation targeting in a learning economy: An ABM perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 114-128.
    7. Deversi, Marvin, 2014. "Do Macroeconomic Shocks Affect Intuitive Inflation Forecasting? An Experimental Investigation," Ruhr Economic Papers 528, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. De Grauwe, Paul & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2015. "Animal spirits and credit cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 95-117.
    9. Isabelle Salle & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas & Murat Yıldızoğlu, 2019. "How transparent about its inflation target should a central bank be?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 391-427, March.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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