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Equilibres et anticipations

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  • Bernard Walliser

Abstract

[eng] Equilibria and expectation. Bernard Walliser. This article makes a survey of recent contributions concerning economic expectations and their influence on economic equilibria, excluding the problem of empirical tests of expectation schemes and analysis of economic policy effects of the models on elimination. The possibility of identification between expected and achieved endogeneous variables tous explored simultaneously in the field of macro-economics (rational expectations), microeconomics (perfect foresights) and socio-economics (self-fulfilling profhecies), and leads to multiple solutions being obtained by alternative expectation models, identically confirmed at equilibrium. The types of equilibria resulting from multi-level crossed expectations between agents were also formalized in the context of duopoly theory and convergence conditions of learning processes on agents expectation models are progressively worked out. [fre] L'article établit un survey des contributions récentes concernant les anticipations des agents économiques et leur influence sur les équilibres économiques, à l'exclusion du problème des tests empiriques des schémas d'anticipation et de l'analyse des conséquences de politique économique des modèles étudiés. La possibilité de coïncidence entre variables endogènes anticipées et réalisées a été explorée aussi bien dans le champ macroéconomique (anticipations rationnelles), micro­économique (prévisions parfaites) et socio-économique (prophéties auto-réalisatrices) et conduit à des solutions multiples pouvant être engendrées par des modèles d'anticipation alternatifs, également confirmés à l'équilibre. Les types d'équilibre résultant d'anticipations croisées entre agents à plusieurs niveaux ont aussi été formalisés dans le cadre de la théorie du duopole et les conditions de conver­gence des processus d'apprentissage des agents sur leurs modèles d'anticipation sont progressivement dégagées.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernard Walliser, 1982. "Equilibres et anticipations," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(4), pages 594-638.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1982_num_33_4_408673
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1982.408673
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1982.408673
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    1. Philippe Mongin & Pierre-André Chiappori, 1984. "Un modèle de politique monétaire avec aléas stratégiques," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 35(5), pages 831-870.

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