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EuroMInd-D: A Density Estimate of Monthly Gross Domestic Product for the Euro Area

Author

Listed:
  • Tommaso Proietti

    (University of Rome “Tor Vergata" and CREATES)

  • Martyna Marczak

    (University of Hohenheim)

  • Gianluigi Mazzi

    (Statistical Office of the European Communities)

Abstract

EuroMInd-D is a density estimate of monthly gross domestic product (GDP) constructed according to a bottom–up approach, pooling the density estimates of eleven GDP components, by output and expenditure type. The components density estimates are obtained from a medium-size dynamic factor model of a set of coincident time series handling mixed frequencies of observation and ragged–edged data structures. They reflect both parameter and filtering uncertainty and are obtained by implementing a bootstrap algorithm for simulating from the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters, and conditional simulation filters for simulating from the predictive distribution of GDP. Both algorithms process sequentially the data as they become available in real time. The GDP density estimates for the output and expenditure approach are combined using alternative weighting schemes and evaluated with different tests based on the probability integral transform and by applying scoring rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Tommaso Proietti & Martyna Marczak & Gianluigi Mazzi, 2015. "EuroMInd-D: A Density Estimate of Monthly Gross Domestic Product for the Euro Area," CREATES Research Papers 2015-12, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2015-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tommaso Proietti & Alessandro Giovannelli, 2021. "Nowcasting monthly GDP with big data: A model averaging approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(2), pages 683-706, April.
    2. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," Working Papers 1162, Barcelona School of Economics.
    3. Marcus P. A. Cobb, 2020. "Aggregate density forecasting from disaggregate components using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 287-312, January.
    4. Proietti, Tommaso & Giovannelli, Alessandro & Ricchi, Ottavio & Citton, Ambra & Tegami, Christían & Tinti, Cristina, 2021. "Nowcasting GDP and its components in a data-rich environment: The merits of the indirect approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1376-1398.
    5. Gregor Bäurle & Elizabeth Steiner & Gabriel Züllig, 2021. "Forecasting the production side of GDP," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 458-480, April.
    6. Taylor, James W., 2020. "A strategic predictive distribution for tests of probabilistic calibration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1380-1388.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Density Forecast Combination and Evaluation; Mixed–Frequency Data; Dynamic Factor Models; State Space Models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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