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Note sur les tests de rationalité des prévisions

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  • Catherine Doz

Abstract

[ger] Die verzerrten Prognosetests, . von Catherine Doz.. . In diesem Artikel wird der Grundsatz der verzerrten Prognosetests erörtert und die damit verbundene Schwierigkeit aufgezeigt. Aufgrund der geringen Anzahl der untersuchten Aspekte ist tatsächlich bei der Analyse dieser Testergebnisse allerdings Vorsicht oft geboten. [spa] Reseña acerca de los tests de rationalidad, . por Catherine Doz.. . En esta reseña se examina el principio de los tests de sesgo de las previsiones y las dificultades que se plantean a este respecte Ahora bien, los resultados de estos tests deben considerarse la mayoría de la veces con prudencia, habida cuenta del reducido numéro de puntos estudiados. [eng] A Note on Rationality Tests, . by Catherine Doz.. . This paper lays out the principle of and problem with forecast bias tests. The results of these tests are often to be considered with care given the small number of points studied. [fre] Note sur les tests de rationalité des prévisions, . par Catherine Doz.. . Cette note présente le principe des tests de biais des prévisions, et en présente la difficulté. Les résultats de ces tests sont en effet souvent à considérer avec prudence, étant donné le faible nombre de points étudiés.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine Doz, 1993. "Note sur les tests de rationalité des prévisions," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 108(2), pages 129-133.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1993_num_108_2_5613
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.1993.5613
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1993.5613
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Jobert & Lionel Persyn, 2012. "Quelques constats sur les prévisions conjoncturelles de la croissance française," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 122(6), pages 833-849.
    2. Karine Bouthevillain & Alexandre Mathis, 1995. "Prévisions : mesures, erreurs et principaux résultats," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 285(1), pages 89-100.

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