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Periodic linear-quadratic methods for modeling seasonality

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  • Richard M. Todd

Abstract

Optimal linear regulator methods are used to represent a class of models of endogenous equilibrium seasonality that has so far received little attention. Seasonal structure is built into these models in either of two equivalent ways: periodically varying the coefficient matrices of a formerly nonseasonal problem or embedding this periodic-coefficient problem in a higher-dimensional sparse system whose time-invariant matrices have a special pattern of zero blocks. The former structure is compact and convenient computationally; the latter can be used to apply familiar convergence results from the theory of time-invariant optimal regulator problems. The new class of seasonality models provides an equilibrium interpretation for empirical work involving periodically stationary time series.

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  • Richard M. Todd, 1989. "Periodic linear-quadratic methods for modeling seasonality," Staff Report 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:127
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter A. Zadrozny, 1990. "Estimating A Multivariate Arma Model with Mixed-Frequency Data: An Application to Forecasting U.S. GNP at Monthly Intervals," Working Papers 90-5, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

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    Keywords

    Seasonal variations (Economics);

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