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Short-term forecasting for the portuguese economy: a methodological overview

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  • António Rua
  • Paulo Esteves

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  • António Rua & Paulo Esteves, 2012. "Short-term forecasting for the portuguese economy: a methodological overview," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:bdpart:b201213
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francisco Dias & Maximiano Pinheiro & António Rua, 2010. "Forecasting using targeted diffusion indexes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 341-352.
    2. António Rua & Fátima Cardoso, 2011. "The Quarterly National Accounts in real-time: an analysis of the revisions over the last decade," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Parigi, Giuseppe & Golinelli, Roberto, 2005. "Short-Run Italian GDP Forecasting and Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Forecast Combinations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 135-196, Elsevier.
    5. Barhoumi, K. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L. & Pluyaud, B. & Rouvreau, B., 2008. "Monthly forecasting of French GDP: A revised version of the OPTIM model," Working papers 222, Banque de France.
    6. Gerhard Fenz & Martin Schneider, 2009. "A Leading Indicator of Austrian Exports Based on Truck Mileage," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 44-52.
    7. Esteves, Paulo Soares, 2013. "Direct vs bottom–up approach when forecasting GDP: Reconciling literature results with institutional practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 416-420.
    8. José A. F. Machado, 2004. "Banco de Portugal Conference on "Portuguese Economic Development in the European Union": A Personal Summary," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    9. Yi Zheng & James Rossiter, 2006. "Using Monthly Indicators to Predict Quarterly GDP," Staff Working Papers 06-26, Bank of Canada.
    10. António Rua, 2011. "A wavelet approach for factor‐augmented forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 666-678, November.
    11. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
    12. Huurman, Christian & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Zhou, Chen, 2012. "The power of weather," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3793-3807.
    13. G. Rünstler & K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2009. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 595-611.
    14. Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2006. "Are more data always better for factor analysis?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 169-194, May.
    15. Paulo Soares Esteves, 2004. "Quarterly Series for the Portuguese Economy: 1977-2003," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    16. Diebold, Francis X, 1988. "Serial Correlation and the Combination of Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(1), pages 105-111, January.
    17. José R. Maria & Sara Serra, 2008. "Forecasting investment: A fishing contest using survey data," Working Papers w200818, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    18. Marie Diron, 2008. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 371-390.
    19. Diron, Marie, 2006. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Working Paper Series 622, European Central Bank.
    20. Peter Grasmann & Filip Keereman, 2001. "An indicator-based short-term forecast for quarterly GDP in the euro area," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 154, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    21. Jeremy Smith & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2009. "A Simple Explanation of the Forecast Combination Puzzle," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 331-355, June.
    22. Cláudia Duarte & Fátima Cardoso, 2006. "The Use of Qualitative Information for Forecasting Exports," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hanslin Grossmann, Sandra & Scheufele, Rolf, 2015. "Foreign PMIs: A reliable indicator for Swiss exports," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112830, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Mahmut Gunay, 2016. "Forecasting Turkish GDP Growth : Bottom-Up vs Direct?," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1622, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. António Rua & Nuno Lourenço & Francisco Dias, 2018. "Forecasting exports with targeted predictors," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Cláudia Duarte & Sónia Cabral, 2016. "Nowcasting Portuguese tourism exports," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Filipa Lima, 2014. "The use of payments data to improve monetary and financial analysis," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the Porto Workshop on "Integrated management of micro-databases", volume 37, pages 111-114, Bank for International Settlements.

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