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Rational Expectations In The Australian Wool Industry

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  • Fisher, Brian S.

Abstract

The process by which producers form expectations has implications for model building and policy analysis. An econometric model of the Australian wool market is estimated. It is shown that the rational expectations hypothesis is not inconsistent with the data for both the period before the floor price scheme was implemented and since that date. This finding has important implications, since it has been shown that the welfare gains from stabilisation are small if producers form rational expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Fisher, Brian S., 1983. "Rational Expectations In The Australian Wool Industry," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 27(3), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ajaeau:22742
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.22742
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Wegge, Leon L. & Feldman, Mark, 1983. "Identifiability criteria for Muth-rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 245-254, February.
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    9. Scandizzo, Pasquale Lucio & Hazell, Peter B.R. & Anderson, Jock R., 1983. "Producers' Price Expectations and the Size of the Welfare Gains from Price Stabilisation," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 51(02), pages 1-15, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Myers, Robert J. & Piggott, Roley R. & Tomek, William G., 1990. "Estimating Sources Of Fluctuations In The Australian Wool Market: An Application Of Var Methods," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 34(3), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Fisher, Brian S., 1985. "Frontiers in Agricultural Policy Research," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 53(02), pages 1-11, August.
    3. Geoff W. Edwards, 1987. "Agricultural Policy Debate: A Survey," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 63(2), pages 129-143, June.
    4. Phillips, Shauna & Bewley, Ronald A., 1990. "The Effects of Flexible Exchange Rates on Australian Wool Prices," 1990 Conference (34th), February 13-15, 1990, Brisbane, Australia 145352, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

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