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Konjunkturprognosen: Methoden, Risiken und Treffsicherheiten

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  • Grömling, Michael

Abstract

Die Konjunkturprognosen für das Jahr 2001 lagen weit neben der tatsächlichen Wirtschaftsentwicklung. Dies wurde der Prognostikerzunft als eklatantes Versagen vorgehalten. Doch eine mittelfristige Qualitätskontrolle der Prognosen des Sachverständigenrats, der Arbeitsgemeinschaft wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute und des Instituts der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln weist nach, dass die Prognosen für die Jahre 1995 bis 2001 recht treffsicher waren. Zumindest war die Prognosequalität in der zweiten Hälfte der 90er-Jahre nicht schlechter als früher.

Suggested Citation

  • Grömling, Michael, 2002. "Konjunkturprognosen: Methoden, Risiken und Treffsicherheiten," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 29(2), pages 18-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwktre:156819
    DOI: 10.2373/1864-810X.02-02-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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