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A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'

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  1. Potential supply, the output gap and inflation
    by bankunderground in Bank Underground on 2016-01-25 13:30:48

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. GOMEZ-SORZANO, Gustavo Alejandro, 2007. "Decomposing Violence: Crime Cycles In The Twentieth Century In The United States," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
  2. Ard den Reijer, 2006. "The Dutch business cycle: which indicators should we monitor?," DNB Working Papers 100, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  3. Ben Smit & Le Roux Burrows, 2002. "Estimating potential output and output gaps for the South African economy," Working Papers 05/2002, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  4. Mr. Atsushi Iimi, 2006. "Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Botswana," IMF Working Papers 2006/140, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Martha Misas & Enrique López, 2000. "La Utilización De La Capacidad Instalada De La Industria En Colombia: Un Nuevo Enfoque," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 18(38), pages 5-44, December.
  6. Joon Y. Park, 2003. "Bootstrap Unit Root Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1845-1895, November.
  7. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 482-501.
  8. Grant, Angelia L. & Chan, Joshua C.C., 2017. "Reconciling output gaps: Unobserved components model and Hodrick–Prescott filter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 114-121.
  9. Günes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2018. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(3), pages 550-566, July.
  10. Peter Brandner & Klaus Neusser, 1992. "Business cycles in open economies: Stylized facts for Austria and Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(1), pages 67-87, March.
  11. Antoine d'Autume, 1992. "Coïntégration et modèles dynamiques," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 71-83.
  12. Dupasquier, Chantal & Guay, Alain & St-Amant, Pierre, 1999. "A Survey of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 577-595, July.
  13. Smith, Ron P. & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2007. "Monetary Policy Transmission and the Phillips Curve in a Global Context," Kiel Working Papers 1366, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  14. Alemu, Zerihun Gudeta & Oosthuizen, Klopper & van Schalkwyk, Herman D., 2003. "Is Increased Instability In Cereal Production In Ethiopia Caused By Policy Changes?," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25892, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  15. Kum Hwa Oh & Eric Zivot & Drew Creal, 2006. "The Relationship between the Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition andUnobserved Component Models with Correlated Shocks," Working Papers UWEC-2006-16-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  16. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2016. "Measuring business cycles with structural breaks and outliers: Applications to international data," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 281-303.
  17. Robert F. Engle & Joao Victor Issler, 1993. "Estimating Sectoral Cycles Using Cointegration and Common Features," NBER Working Papers 4529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Chin Nam Low & Heather Anderson & Ralph D. Snyder, 2006. "Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition with Markov Switching," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  19. Jorge Iván RODRIGUEZ MUNOZ & Juan Ricardo PERILLA JIMENEZ & José Daniel REYES PEÑA, 2004. "Cálculo del PIB Potencial en Colombia.:1970-2003," Archivos de Economía 2078, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
  20. Joël Cariolle & Michaël Goujon, 2015. "Measuring Macroeconomic Instability: A Critical Survey Illustrated With Exports Series," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 1-26, February.
  21. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Morana, Claudio, 2003. "Measuring US core inflation: A common trends approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 197-212, June.
  22. Martha Misas & Enrique López, 1999. "El producto potencial en Colombia: una estimación bajo var estructural," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, September.
  23. Yoonbai Kim, 1997. "How Real are Real Exchange Rates?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 87-108.
  24. Francesco Nucci & Alberto Franco Pozzolo, 2014. "Exchange Rate, External Orientation of Firms and Wage Adjustment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(11), pages 1589-1611, November.
  25. Claudio BorioBy & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2017. "Rethinking potential output: embedding information about the financial cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 655-677.
  26. Adam Elbourne & Coen Teulings, 2011. "The potential of a small model," CPB Discussion Paper 193.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  27. Leo Butler, 1996. "The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Porjection Model Part 4 : A Semi- Structural Method to Estimate Potential Output : Combining Economic Theory with a Time-Series Filter," Technical Reports 77, Bank of Canada.
  28. Carmen M. Reinhart & Peter Wickham, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 175-213, June.
  29. Heather M Anderson, 2010. "Discussion of Key Elements of Global Inflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  30. Simon van Norden, 1995. "Why Is It So Hard to Measure the Current Output Gap?," Macroeconomics 9506001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  31. Lee, Jim, 2000. "The Robustness of Okun's Law: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 331-356, April.
  32. Quah, Danny, 1992. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 107-118, January.
  33. J-P.Guironnet, 2006. "Analyse cliométrique des cycles de croissance de l'éducation en France (1815-2003): vers un modèle à seuil autorégressif," Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), issue 34, pages 193-214, February.
  34. Paulauskas, Vygantas, 2010. "On Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and limit theorems for linear random fields," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 621-639, March.
  35. Blasques, F. & van Brummelen, J. & Gorgi, P. & Koopman, S.J., 2024. "A robust Beveridge–Nelson decomposition using a score-driven approach with an application," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
  36. Heinemann, Friedrich, 1994. "Central Europe and European monetary integration: a strategy for catching up," ZEW Discussion Papers 94-21, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  37. Harris Dellas & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2003. "On the cyclicality of schooling: theory and evidence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 148-172, January.
  38. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2000. "The Johansen-Granger Representation Theorem: An Explicit Expression for I(1) Processes," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt832256dg, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  39. Ajimuda Olumide, 2009. "Price Volatility, Expectations and Monetary Policy in Nigeria," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 109-140, May.
  40. Nucci, Francesco & Pozzolo, Alberto Franco, 2010. "The exchange rate, employment and hours: What firm-level data say," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 112-123, November.
  41. Nelson, Charles R., 1988. "Spurious trend and cycle in the state space decomposition of a time series with a unit root," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 475-488.
  42. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Woodford, Michael, 2012. "Linear-quadratic approximation of optimal policy problems," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 1-42.
  43. Álvarez, Luis J. & Gómez-Loscos, Ana, 2018. "A menu on output gap estimation methods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 827-850.
  44. George A. Slotsve & James M. Nason, 2003. "Along the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Nominal and Real Rigidities," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 270, Society for Computational Economics.
  45. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2018. "A state-level analysis of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 239-248.
  46. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 2000. "Endogenous Business Cycles and the Dynamics of Output, Hours, and Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1136-1159, December.
  47. Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "Business survey forecasts and measurement of output trends in five European economies," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 52, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  48. Alemu, Zerihun Gudeta & Oosthuizen, L.K. & van Schalkwyk, Herman D., 2003. "The Effect And Persistence Of Major Changes In Economic Policies On The Long-Term Performance (Trend) Of Ethiopian Agriculture," 2003 Annual Conference, October 2-3, 2003, Pretoria, South Africa 19089, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA).
  49. Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Roeger, 2001. "Potential Output: Measurement Methods, "New" Economy Influences and Scenarios for 2001-2010 - A comparison of the EU-15 and the US," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 150, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  50. Britta Gehrke & Fang Yao, 2016. "Persistence and volatility of real exchange rates: the role of supply shocks revisited," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  51. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values: Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 276-299, March.
  52. Marlon Fritz & Thomas Gries & Yuanhua Feng, 2019. "Growth Trends and Systematic Patterns of Booms and Busts‐Testing 200 Years of Business Cycle Dynamics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(1), pages 62-78, February.
  53. James Davidson, 2013. "Cointegration and error correction," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 7, pages 165-188, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  54. Rabanal, Cristian & Baronio, Alfredo Mario, 2010. "Alternativas para la modelización de tendencias y ciclos en la economía argentina, 1880-2009/Alternatives for Modeling Trends and Cycles in Argentina's Economy, 1880 - 2009," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 28, pages 651-670, Diciembre.
  55. Fernandes, Mário Correia & Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2023. "Modelling output gaps in the Euro Area with structural breaks: The COVID-19 recession," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1046-1058.
  56. Mark W. Watson, 2013. "Comment on "Shocks and Crashes"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013, Volume 28, pages 367-378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  57. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2022. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  58. Yu-Fan Huang & Sui Luo, 2018. "Potential output and inflation dynamics after the Great Recession," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 495-517, September.
  59. Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2017. "Measurement errors and monetary policy: Then and now," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 66-78.
  60. Marie-Ange VEGANZONES-VAROUDAKIS & NABLI, 2002. "Exchange Rate Regime and Competitiveness of Manufactured Exports: The case of MENA Countries," Working Papers 200230, CERDI.
  61. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  62. Jaromir Benes & David Vavra, 2004. "Eigenvalue Decomposition of Time Series with Application to the Czech Business Cycle," Working Papers 2004/08, Czech National Bank.
  63. Gourieroux, Christian & Jasiak, Joann, 2010. "Inference for Noisy Long Run Component Process," MPRA Paper 98987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  64. Argia M. Sbordone, 2002. "An optimizing model of U.S. wage and price dynamics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  65. Kozicki, Sharon, 1999. "Multivariate detrending under common trend restrictions: Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 997-1028, June.
  66. Sbrana, Giacomo, 2013. "The exact linkage between the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 311-316.
  67. Tao Chen, 2022. "Are individuals informed in global markets?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 243-263, July.
  68. Qazi Haque & Leandro M. Magnusson & Kazuki Tomioka, 2021. "Empirical Evidence on the Dynamics of Investment Under Uncertainty in the U.S," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1193-1217, October.
  69. Hua Wang & Liao Xu, 2019. "Do exchange‐traded fund flows increase the volatility of the underlying index? Evidence from the emerging market in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(5), pages 1525-1548, March.
  70. Yan, Bingcheng & Zivot, Eric, 2010. "A structural analysis of price discovery measures," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, February.
  71. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2022. "Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated since the Great Recession?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 246-258, May.
  72. Massimo Antonini & Kevin Lee & Jacinta Pires, 2013. "Public Sector Debt Dynamics: The Persistence and Sources of Shocks to Debt in 10 EU Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2‐3), pages 277-298, March.
  73. Myers, Robert J. & Johnson, Stanley R. & Helmar, Michael & Baumes, Harry, 2018. "Long-run and short-run relationships between oil prices, producer prices, and consumer prices: What can we learn from a permanent-transitory decomposition?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 175-190.
  74. Marco Centoni & Gianluca Cubadda, 2015. "Common Feature Analysis of Economic Time Series: An Overview and Recent Developments," CEIS Research Paper 355, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 05 Oct 2015.
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  78. Brauer, Jurgen & Gomez-Sorzano, Alejandro & Sethuraman, Sankar, 2004. "Decomposing violence: political murder in Colombia, 1946-1999," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 447-461, June.
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