IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v8y1998i4p367-375.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium: an application with US Stock Price and Dividend data

Author

Listed:
  • Burak Saltoglu

Abstract

The speed of adjustment parameters of the long-run relationship between stock prices and dividends are estimated. By using a recent technique called 'persistence profiles', the short-run dynamics of the simple present discount value relationship for the US annual data between 1878 and 1987 is investigated. Estimates of the persistence profiles implied that system-wide shocks to the cointegrating relationship between stock prices and dividends take around 16 years to die out completely. The results obtained in this study can be interpreted with the existence of transaction costs in the financial markets or market inefficiencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Burak Saltoglu, 1998. "Speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium: an application with US Stock Price and Dividend data," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 367-375.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:8:y:1998:i:4:p:367-375
    DOI: 10.1080/096031098332907
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/096031098332907
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/096031098332907?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, Kevin C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 1993. "Persistence profiles and business cycle fluctuations in a disaggregated model of U.K. output growth," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 293-322, September.
    2. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    3. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    4. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 774-808, August.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    7. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1992. "Impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 53-78, January.
    8. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    9. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
    10. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1995. "The Response of Stock Prices to Permanent and Temporary Shocks to Dividends," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 1-22, March.
    11. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    12. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fredj Jawadi, 2008. "Estimating The S&P Fundamental Value Using Star Models," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 2(1), pages 137-146.
    2. Bohl, Martin T., 2003. "Periodically collapsing bubbles in the US stock market?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 385-397.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    2. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ripamonti, Alexandre, 2013. "Rational Valuation Formula (RVF) and Time Variability in Asset Rates of Return," MPRA Paper 79460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Liam A. Gallagher & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices: Evidence from Assessing Macroeconomic Shocks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(2), pages 345-362, October.
    5. Emmanouil Mavrakis & Christos Alexakis, 2018. "Statistical Arbitrage Strategies under Different Market Conditions: The Case of the Greek Banking Sector," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(2), pages 159-185, August.
    6. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    7. Enrique Sentana, 1993. "The econometrics of the stock market I: rationality tests," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(3), pages 401-420, September.
    8. Helmut Herwartz & Leonardo Morales-Arias, 2009. "In-sample and out-of-sample properties of international stock return dynamics conditional on equilibrium pricing factors," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28.
    9. Liam Gallagher, 1999. "A multi-country analysis of the temporary and permanent components of stock prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 129-142.
    10. Smoluk, Herbert J. & Vasconcellos, Geraldo M. & Kramer, Jonathan K., 1998. "Random walks in the U.K. pound/ U.S. dollar exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 65-82.
    11. Jorge Gregoire & Leonardo Letelier, 1998. "Desempeño Económico Agregado y Mercado Accionario: Un Análisis Empírico para el Caso Chileno," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 35(105), pages 183-203.
    12. M.A.Hossain, 2001. "On Export-Led Growth: Is Manufacturing Exports a New Engine of Growth for Bangladesh?," Discussion Papers Series 297, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    13. Wu, Ziping & Merlean, Seamus, 2003. "Market efficiency in the reformed Chinese grain marketing system," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 115-130.
    14. Kausik Chaudhuri, 1997. "Stock returns in emerging markets: a common trend analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 105-108.
    15. Raphael Bergoeing & Felipe Morandé & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Asset Prices in Chile: Facts and Fads," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 8, pages 235-278, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller, 2002. "Fads or bubbles?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 335-362.
    18. Kulshreshtha, Mudit & Parikh, Jyoti K., 2000. "Modeling demand for coal in India: vector autoregressive models with cointegrated variables," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 149-168.
    19. Chung, Heetaik & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1998. "Fundamental and nonfundamental components in stock prices of Pacific-Rim countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(3-4), pages 321-346, August.
    20. N. Groenewold, 2000. "Financial Deregulation and the Relationship Between the Economy and the Share Market in Australia," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 00-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:8:y:1998:i:4:p:367-375. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.