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The Post-War U.S. Phillips Curve: A Revisionist Econometric History

Author

Listed:
  • Robert G. King

    (University of Virginia)

  • Mark W. Watson

    (Northwestern University)

Abstract

In 1958, A.W. Phillips discovered a strong negative correlation between inflation and unemployment in United Kingdom data. Continuing controversy surrounds the long-run trade-off suggested by a curve he drew through these observations. We conduct a wide-ranging investigation of the post-war U.S. Phillips correlations and Phillips curve. Many economists view the Phillips correlations as chimerical, given the rise in both inflation and unemployment during the 1970s, and the Phillips curve as plagued by subtle identification difficulties raised by Lucas and Sargent. Yet, a strikingly stable negative correlation exists over the business cycle, and recent theory indicates the Lucas-Sargent critique may not be empirically relevant. When we estimate the long-run trade-off as Gordon and Solow did, we find it is roughly one-for-one. This traditional Keynesian identification also makes business cycles entirely due to demand shocks. However, the Gordon-Solow model is not the only one that fits the data well. Alternative identifications lead to much more modest effects of demand on business cycles and essentially negligible long-run trade-offs.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "The Post-War U.S. Phillips Curve: A Revisionist Econometric History," Working Papers 1994-2, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    • Handle: RePEc:pri:econom:1994-2
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    File URL: http://www.princeton.edu/~mwatson/papers/kw_1994.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fratianni, Michele & Gallegati, Marco & Giri, Federico, 2022. "The medium-run Phillips curve: A time–frequency investigation for the UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," NIPE Working Papers 04/2019, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    3. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    U.S.; Northern America; History; Phillips Curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • N11 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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