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Rethinking Potential Output: Embedding Information about the Financial Cycle

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  • Claudio Borio
  • Piti Disyatat
  • Mikael Juselius

Abstract

This paper argues that information about the financial cycle should be incorporated in measures of potential output. Identifying potential output with non-inflationary output is too restrictive given that growing financial imbalances can place output on an unsustainable path even if inflation is low and stable. We propose a simple and transparent framework to accommodate information about the financial cycle in constructing output gap estimates. Applied to US data, our approach yields measures of potential output that are not only estimated more precisely, but also much more robust in real time. Inflation, by comparison, carries very little information that can be exploited to infer potential output.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2015. "Rethinking Potential Output: Embedding Information about the Financial Cycle," PIER Discussion Papers 5, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:pui:dpaper:5
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Potential output; output gap; financial cycle; inflation; Phillips curve; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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