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Is Increased Instability In Cereal Production In Ethiopia Caused By Policy Changes?

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  • Alemu, Zerihun Gudeta
  • Oosthuizen, Klopper
  • van Schalkwyk, Herman D.

Abstract

In Ethiopia, growth in cereal production is accompanied by a more than proportionate increase in the standard deviation of production. This study applies descriptive and variance decomposition procedures to determine the sources of increased instability in cereal production in order to show whether they are caused by policy changes. It was found that production instability was caused more by increased yield instability. Considering the fact that use of high-powered inputs is limited to a small number of farmers, production is at subsistence level and that farmers' responsiveness to policy changes is constrained by infrastructural and institutional constraints and by the existing land policy, instability in yield is predominantly attributed to weather variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Alemu, Zerihun Gudeta & Oosthuizen, Klopper & van Schalkwyk, Herman D., 2003. "Is Increased Instability In Cereal Production In Ethiopia Caused By Policy Changes?," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25892, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae03:25892
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.25892
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    2. Negassa, Asfaw & Jayne, Thomas S., 1998. "Vertical and Spatial Integration of Grain Markets in Ethiopia: Implications for Grain Markets," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 55598, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    3. Peter B. R. Hazell, 1984. "Sources of Increased Instability in Indian and U.S. Cereal Production," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(3), pages 302-311.
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