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The Demographics of Innovation and Asset Returns

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  • Nicolae Gârleanu
  • Leonid Kogan
  • Stavros Panageas

Abstract

We study asset-pricing implications of innovation in a general-equilibrium overlapping-generations economy. Innovation increases the competitive pressure on existing firms and workers, reducing the profits of existing firms and eroding the human capital of older workers. Due to the lack of inter-generational risk sharing, innovation creates a systematic risk factor, which we call "displacement risk.'' This risk helps explain several empirical patterns, including the existence of the growth-value factor in returns, the value premium, and the high equity premium. We assess the magnitude of displacement risk using estimates of inter-cohort consumption differences across households and find support for the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolae Gârleanu & Leonid Kogan & Stavros Panageas, 2009. "The Demographics of Innovation and Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 15457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15457
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ryo Jinnai, 2015. "Innovation, Product Cycle, and Asset Prices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 484-504, July.
    3. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Narayan, Seema, 2018. "Technology-investing countries and stock return predictability," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 159-179.
    4. Li, Xiaogang, 2020. "Innovation, market valuations, policy uncertainty and trade: Theory and evidence," ISU General Staff Papers 202001010800009179, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Nicolae Gârleanu & Stavros Panageas & Jianfeng Yu, 2012. "Technological Growth and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1265-1292, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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