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The behavior of social transfers over the business cycle: empirical evidence of Uruguay

Author

Listed:
  • Ronald Miranda

    (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economí­a)

  • Leonel Muinelo-Gallo

    (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economí­a)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the cycle fluctuations of the social transfers in Uruguay over the period 1988.Q1 to 2016.Q3. The unobservable cyclical components are extracted from the observable time series following different empirical strategies. The results show that social transfers behave procyclical and lag the macroeconomics fluctuations. In this way, social transfers instead of contributing to stabilize the Uruguayan economy have aggravated the business cycle, and through various items of expenditure, expose the vulnerable groups of society to more adverse economic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald Miranda & Leonel Muinelo-Gallo, 2018. "The behavior of social transfers over the business cycle: empirical evidence of Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 18-15, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-15-18
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/20424
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    social transfers; business cycle; detrending; Uruguay;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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