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Economic Growth from a Structural Unobserved Component Modeling: The Case of Senegal

Author

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  • Samuel Bates

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye

    (LARES - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2)

Abstract

Using the structural unobserved component (UC) modeling, this study analyzes the Senegalese economic growth path after 5 decades of independence by focusing on the potential output, the GDP cycle and the type of shocks on the GDP. Empirical evidence suggests that an inventory cycle mainly drives the GDP short-term component with a time-varying extent of fluctuations. The main sources of shocks result from external determining factors with an impact on the long run. However, their persistent effects have been mitigated particularly since the devaluation of 1994. International institutions have partially motivated the relative successful GDP growth path of Senegal. Nevertheless, some structural internal improvements are needed to balance the financial and productive flaws in order to consolidate both the "resilience" to shocks and the macroeconomic stabilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel Bates & Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye, 2014. "Economic Growth from a Structural Unobserved Component Modeling: The Case of Senegal," Post-Print hal-01291329, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01291329
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01291329
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic history of Senegal; Unobserved component modeling; GDP growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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