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Estimating the Natural Yield Curve in Japan Using a VAR with Common Trends

Author

Listed:
  • Yudai Hatayama

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Yuto Iwasaki

    (Previously Bank of Japan)

Abstract

This paper introduces a novel approach for simultaneously estimating nominal and real natural yield curves in Japan. Specifically, we employ macroeconomic variables (output gap and inflation rate) as observed variables, in addition to the nominal and real yield curves, and conduct an estimation combining the representative yield curve model, the Nelson-Siegel model (Nelson and Siegel, 1987), with a VAR with common trends (Del Negro et al., 2017). The results presented in this paper indicate that since the 1990s, both nominal and real natural yield curves have exhibited downward shifts, as a consequence of a decline in the natural rate of interest. Furthermore, both curves have flattened due to a trending decline in the term premium. The results also indicate that the extent of these changes differs between the nominal and real natural yield curves. However, it should be noted that the estimation of natural yield curves is still in the process of development. Consequently, the results should be interpreted with caution.

Suggested Citation

  • Yudai Hatayama & Yuto Iwasaki, 2024. "Estimating the Natural Yield Curve in Japan Using a VAR with Common Trends," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-17, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp24e17
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural rate of interest; Natural yield curve; Term structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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