IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/13401.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Liquidity and Exchange Rates - An Empirical Investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Engel, Charles
  • Wu, Steve Pak Yeung

Abstract

We find strong empirical evidence that economic fundamentals can well account for nominal exchange rate movements. The important innovation is that we include the liquidity yield on government bonds as an explanatory variable. We find impressive evidence that changes in the liquidity yield are significant in explaining exchange rate changes for all of the G10 countries. Moreover, after controlling for liquidity yields, traditional determinants of exchange rates - adjustment toward purchasing power parity and monetary shocks - are also found to be economically and statistically significant. We show how these relationships arise out of a canonical two-country New Keynesian model with liquidity returns. Additionally, we find a role for sovereign default risk and currency swap market frictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Engel, Charles & Wu, Steve Pak Yeung, 2018. "Liquidity and Exchange Rates - An Empirical Investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 13401, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13401
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP13401
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Engel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2023. "Liquidity and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2395-2438.
    2. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:200-224 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2012. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 233-267.
    4. Naohiko Baba & Frank Packer & Teppei Nagano, 2008. "The spillover of money market turbulence to FX swap and cross-currency swap markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    5. Stefan Avdjiev & Valentina Bruno & Catherine Koch & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "The Dollar Exchange Rate as a Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Investment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 151-173, March.
    6. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2016. "Intra-safe haven currency behavior during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 49-64.
    7. Zhengyang Jiang & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Hanno Lustig, 2021. "Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1049-1089, June.
    8. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2008. "The Role of Portfolio Constraints in the International Propagation of Shocks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(4), pages 1215-1256.
    9. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "Liquidity and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 339-352, May.
    10. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    11. Stefan Nagel, 2016. "The Liquidity Premium of Near-Money Assets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1927-1971.
    12. Baba, Naohiko & Packer, Frank, 2009. "Interpreting deviations from covered interest parity during the financial market turmoil of 2007-08," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1953-1962, November.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    15. Linnemann, Ludger & Schabert, Andreas, 2015. "Liquidity premia and interest rate parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 178-192.
    16. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
    17. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    18. Ejis, 2018. "Table of Contents," European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Bucharest Economic Academy, issue 02, June.
    19. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2008. "Exchange rate determination under interest rate rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 971-993, October.
    20. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569.
    21. Rosen Valchev, 2020. "Bond Convenience Yields and Exchange Rate Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 124-166, April.
    22. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-218, March.
    23. Journal of Food Distribution Research, 2018. "Table of Contents," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 49(2), July.
    24. Kollmann, Robert, 2002. "Monetary policy rules in the open economy: effects on welfare and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 989-1015, July.
    25. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    26. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 267-291.
    27. Stefan Avdjiev & Wenxin Du & Cathérine Koch & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "The Dollar, Bank Leverage, and Deviations from Covered Interest Parity," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 193-208, September.
    28. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    29. Zhengyang Jiang & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Hanno Lustig, 2018. "Foreign Safe Asset Demand for US Treasurys and the Dollar," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 537-541, May.
    30. Devereux, Michael B. & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate volatility, and exchange rate disconnect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 913-940, July.
    31. Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    32. Engel, Charles, 2019. "Real exchange rate convergence: The roles of price stickiness and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 21-32.
    33. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2009. "Financial Integration, Financial Development, and Global Imbalances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(3), pages 371-416, June.
    34. Engel, Charles, 1992. "The Risk Premium and the Liquidity Premium in Foreign Exchange Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(4), pages 871-879, November.
    35. Ejis, 2018. "Table of Contents," European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Bucharest Economic Academy, issue 01, March.
    36. Benigno, Gianluca, 2004. "Real exchange rate persistence and monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 473-502, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Mr. Tobias Adrian & Peichu Xie, 2020. "The Non-U.S. Bank Demand for U.S. Dollar Assets," IMF Working Papers 2020/101, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," Working Papers 786, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2023. "Liquidity yield and exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Maggiori, Matteo, 2021. "International Macroeconomics With Imperfect Financial Markets," SocArXiv z8g6r, Center for Open Science.
    8. Andrew Lilley & Matteo Maggiori & Brent Neiman & Jesse Schreger, 2019. "Exchange Rate Reconnect," NBER Working Papers 26046, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2023. "Collateral Advantage: Exchange Rates, Capital Flows and Global Cycles," NBER Working Papers 31164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2021. "Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(8), pages 2183-2232.
    11. Patrick Augustin & Mikhail Chernov & Lukas Schmid & Dongho Song, 2024. "The Term Structure of Covered Interest Rate Parity Violations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 2077-2114, June.
    12. Chernov, Mikhail & Augustin, Patrick & Schmid, Lukas & Song, Dongho, 2020. "The term structure of CIP violations," CEPR Discussion Papers 14774, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Sager, Michael & Taylor, Mark P., 2014. "Generating currency trading rules from the term structure of forward foreign exchange premia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 230-250.
    14. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    15. Federico Favaretto, 2023. "Exchange Rates and Government Debt," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23198, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    16. Engel, Charles, 2020. "Safe U.S. Assets and U.S. Capital Flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    17. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
    18. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey & Maxime Sauzet, 2019. "The International Monetary and Financial System," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 859-893, August.
    19. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    20. Engel, Charles & Wu, Steve Pak Yeung, 2023. "Forecasting the U.S. Dollar in the 21st Century," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13401. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.