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Coherence of output gaps in the euro area: The impact of the COVID-19 shock

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  • de Haan, Jakob
  • Jacobs, Jan P.A.M.
  • Zijm, Renske

Abstract

Using the measures proposed by Mink et al. (2012), we reexamine the coherence of business cycles in the euro area using a long sample period. We also analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business cycle coherence and examine whether our measures for business cycle coherence indicate a core versus periphery within EMU. Our results suggest that business cycle coherence did not increase monotonically. The COVID-19 pandemic made that the signs of the output gaps of euro area countries became more similar, but we find large differences in the amplitude of the output gaps across countries.

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  • de Haan, Jakob & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Zijm, Renske, 2024. "Coherence of output gaps in the euro area: The impact of the COVID-19 shock," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:84:y:2024:i:c:s0176268023000137
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102369
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    Cited by:

    1. Saulius Jokubaitis & Dmitrij Celov, 2022. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EU: A Regional-Sectoral Look through Soft-Clustering and Wavelet Decomposition," Papers 2206.14128, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID19 crisis; Business cycle coherence; Synchronization; Output gaps; Euro area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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