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Are shocks to tourism transitory at business cycle horizons?

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  • Paresh Kumar Narayan

Abstract

The goal of this article is to propose a theoretical framework based on a macro model that can be used to examine the relative importance of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining variations in tourist expenditure and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at business cycle horizons. We estimate the model for Australia. Our findings reveal a common-trend and common-cycle relationship among tourist expenditure and GDP, and the variance decomposition analysis of shocks reveals that at business cycle horizons permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in output, while transitory shocks explain the bulk of the variations in tourist expenditure.

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  • Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2011. "Are shocks to tourism transitory at business cycle horizons?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2071-2077.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:43:y:2011:i:16:p:2071-2077
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840903035951
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    1. Kožić Ivan & Arčabić Vladimir & Sever Ivan, 2022. "Tourism and Business Cycles: Does the Relationship Fade Away?," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 25(1), pages 95-110.
    2. Vatsa, Puneet, 2020. "Comovement amongst the demand for New Zealand tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Gu, Xinhua & Wu, Jie & Guo, Haizhen & Li, Guoqiang, 2018. "Local tourism cycle and external business cycle," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 159-170.
    4. Robertico Croes & Jorge Ridderstaat, 2017. "The effects of business cycles on tourism demand flows in small island destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(7), pages 1451-1475, November.
    5. José Francisco Perles-Ribes & Ana Belén Ramón-Rodríguez & Martín Sevilla-Jiménez & Antonio Rubia, 2016. "The Effects of Economic Crises on Tourism Success: An Integrated Model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(2), pages 417-447, April.

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