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The Stylised Facts of the UK Commercial Building Cycles

Author

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  • A J McGough

    (Faculty of Business Finance, Southampton Institute, East Park Terrace, Southampton SO14 0YN, England)

  • S Tsolacos

    (Centre for Spatial and Real Estate Economics, Department of Economics, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6AW England)

Abstract

In the present study we undertake a statistical analysis of the cyclical properties of certain economic, financial, and real property-market variables and attempt to establish the stylised facts in relation to the office, industrial, and retail property cycle in the United Kingdom. We build upon the methodology which has been adopted in modern business-cycle research to confirm the cyclical regularities of aggregate variables and business fluctuations across countries and over time. The results of this study establish for certain variables the presence of relative cyclical movements over the phases of the property cycles which conform to theoretical intuition. They also identify cyclical irregularities across property sectors, which the existing property-cycle literature would need to address.

Suggested Citation

  • A J McGough & S Tsolacos, 1997. "The Stylised Facts of the UK Commercial Building Cycles," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 29(3), pages 485-500, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:29:y:1997:i:3:p:485-500
    DOI: 10.1068/a290485
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. R Barras & D Ferguson, 1987. "Dynamic Modelling of the Building Cycle: 2. Empirical Results," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 19(4), pages 493-520, April.
    5. R Barras & D Ferguson, 1987. "Dynamic Modelling of the Building Cycle: 1. Theoretical Framework," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 19(3), pages 353-367, March.
    6. Henry O. Pollakowski & Susan M. Wachter & Lloyd Lynford, 1992. "Did Office Market Size Matter in the 1980s? A Time‐Series Cross‐Sectional Analysis of Metropolitan Area Office Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 302-324, June.
    7. Balke, Nathan S. & Fomby, Thomas B., 1991. "Shifting trends, segmented trends, and infrequent permanent shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 61-85, August.
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