IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/anp/en2005/034.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

O Mecanismo De Transmissão Da Taxa De Câmbio Para Índices De Preços: Uma Análise Vecm Para O Brasil

Author

Listed:
  • Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho de Guillén
  • Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araújo

Abstract

This article uses a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework to study exchange rate pass-through to producer and consumer prices in Brasil. We identify two long-run and one short-run relations in data. We calculate the impulse-response function of domestic prices to exchange rate shock. Exchange rate pass-through is shown to be incomplete. We verify that passthrough is modest for producer prices and very small for consumer prices. An exchange rate shock does, therefore, have a limited impact on consumer price inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho de Guillén & Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araújo, 2005. "O Mecanismo De Transmissão Da Taxa De Câmbio Para Índices De Preços: Uma Análise Vecm Para O Brasil," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 034, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:034
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/encontro2005/artigos/A05A034.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "Common cycles and the importance of transitory shocks to macroeconomic aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 449-475, June.
    2. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-360, Oct.-Dec..
    3. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    4. Ki-Ho Kim, 1998. "US inflation and the dollar exchange rate: a vector error correction model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 613-619.
    5. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    6. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
    7. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-380, October.
    8. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    9. Menon, Jayant, 1995. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 197-231, June.
    10. Eliana Cardoso & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Capital Flows to Brazil: The Endogeneity of Capital Controls," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 161-202, March.
    11. Ilan Goldfajn & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "The Pass-through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study," Working Papers Series 5, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-395, October.
    13. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    14. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    15. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    18. Engle, Robert F. & Issler, Joao Victor, 1995. "Estimating common sectoral cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 83-113, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sérgio Kannebley & Diogo de Prince & Felipe dos Santos Costa, 2023. "Sectoral Exchange Rate Pass-through to Manufacturing Prices: A GVAR Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 919-958, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Issler, João Victor & Rodrigues, Claudia & Burjack, Rafael, 2014. "Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 310-335.
    2. Elizabeth Wakerly & Byron Scott & James Nason, 2006. "Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 320-347, February.
    3. Cribari-Neto, Francisco, 1996. "On time series econometrics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 37-60.
    4. Athanasopoulos, George & Issler, João Victor & Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho, 2005. "Forecasting accuracy and estimation uncertainty using VAR models with short- and long-term economic restrictions: a Monte-Carlo study," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 589, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    5. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150years of data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 72-86.
    6. George A. Slotsve & James M. Nason, 2003. "Along the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Nominal and Real Rigidities," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 270, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Mont'Alverne Duarte, Angelo & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & de Carvalho Guillén, Osmani Teixeira & Issler, João Victor, 2021. "Commodity prices and global economic activity: A derived-demand approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    8. Carlos Enrique Carrasco Gutierrez & Fábio Augusto Reis Gomes, 2006. "Evidence About Mercosur’S Business Cycle," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 179, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    9. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "The effect of data transformation on common cycle, cointegration, and unit root tests: Monte Carlo results and a simple test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 195-229, May.
    10. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2001. "Trends and Cycles in Australian State and Territory Unemployment Rates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(238), pages 252-269, September.
    11. Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araújo & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho de Guillén, 2002. "Componentes de Curto e Longo Prazo das Taxas de Juros no Brasil," Working Papers Series 55, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. repec:fgv:epgewp:736 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "Common cycles and the importance of transitory shocks to macroeconomic aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 449-475, June.
    14. Carlos Enrique Carrasco Gutiérrez & Reinaldo Castro Souza & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén, 2007. "Selection of Optimal Lag Length in Cointegrated VAR Models with Weak Form of Common Cyclical Features," Working Papers Series 139, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Jorge Herrera Hernández, 2004. "Business cycles in Mexico and the United States: Do they share common movements?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 7, pages 303-323, November.
    16. Hecq, A.W. & Issler, J.V., 2012. "A common-feature approach for testing present-value restrictions with financial data," Research Memorandum 006, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    17. Francisco Barillas & Christoph Schleicher, 2003. "Common Trends and Common Cycles in Canadian Sectoral Output," Staff Working Papers 03-44, Bank of Canada.
    18. Norman J. Morin, 2006. "Likelihood ratio tests on cointegrating vectors, disequilibrium adjustment vectors, and their orthogonal complements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Guillén, Osmani Teixeira & Hecq, Alain & Issler, João Victor & Saraiva, Diogo, 2015. "Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 862-875.
    20. Peijie Wang, 2003. "Cycles and Common Cycles in Property and Related Sectors," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 22-42.
    21. Peter Rowland, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Domestic Prices: The Case Of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2683, Banco de la Republica.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:034. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rodrigo Zadra Armond (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/anpecea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.