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Une évaluation économétrique de la soutenabilité de la dette extérieure des pays en développement

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  • Pierre-Yves Hénin
  • Patrick Fève

Abstract

[fre] Une évaluation économétrique de la soutenabilité de la dette extérieure des pays en développement. . Cet article propose et met en œuvre une stratégie de tests visant à déterminer si un pays est à même de soutenir son déficit extérieur. Partant de restrictions sur la contrainte budgétaire intertemporelle de la nation, différentes définitions opéra­toires de la soutenabilité sont exposées. Les implications testables de la soutenabilité sont envisagées et une méthode économétrique d'évaluation est proposée. Les propriétés asymptotiques des statistiques sont obtenues et des simulations en petit échantillon permettent d'évaluer la robustesse des procédures d'inférence. La méthodologie de test est alors appliquée à un ensemble de pays en développement, permettant de dégager des conclusions en général favorables à la soutenabilité, du moins quand les exportations brutes sont utilisées comme variable de normalisation. [eng] An econometric evaluation of external debt sustainability in developping countries. . This paper introduces and applies a new testing strategy for assessing the sustainability of external debt for a sample of developping countries. Building on one country intertemporal budget constraint, we present alternative definitions of the sustainability property. Retaining a councept of effective net sustainability, we show how this property may be tested as a joint unit root restriction on the joint dynamics of external debt and the current account (or net exports). The gain of power allowed by this approach is illustrated through simulation, and the empirical applications on twelve developping countries result in optimistic conclusions, especially when gross exports are used as normalization variable.

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  • Pierre-Yves Hénin & Patrick Fève, 1998. "Une évaluation économétrique de la soutenabilité de la dette extérieure des pays en développement," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(1), pages 75-86.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1998_num_49_1_409964
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1998.409964
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1998.409964
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    1. Neaime, Simon, 2015. "Twin deficits and the sustainability of public debt and exchange rate policies in Lebanon," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 127-143.

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