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The Dynamic Relationship Between Housing Prices and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from OECD Countries

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  • N. Kundan Kishor

    (University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee)

  • Hardik A. Marfatia

    (Northeastern Illinois University)

Abstract

This paper studies the dynamic relationship among house prices, income and interest rates in 15 OECD countries. We find that any disequilibrium in the long-run cointegrating relationship among these variables is corrected by the subsequent movement in house prices in most of these countries. This error-correction property of house prices implies that most of the variations in house prices are transitory, as compared to the movements in income and interest rates that are permanent, suggesting that the short-run movements in house prices are independent of the movements in income and interest rates. The results suggest that only the permanent movement in house prices, income and interest rates are associated with each other. We also find that the correlation in house price cycles across different OECD countries has changed over time with the highest correlation during the boom period of 1998–2005.

Suggested Citation

  • N. Kundan Kishor & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2017. "The Dynamic Relationship Between Housing Prices and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from OECD Countries," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 237-268, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:54:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11146-015-9546-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-015-9546-8
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    7. Kishor, N. Kundan & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Nam, Gooan & Rizi, Majid Haghani, 2022. "The local employment effect of house prices: Evidence from U.S. States," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
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    11. Engerstam, Sviatlana, 2020. "Macroeconomic determinants of apartment prices in Swedish and German cities," Working Paper Series 20/2, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance.
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    14. Chuanhao Tian & Wenjun Ji & Sijin Chen & Jinqun Wu, 2020. "The Time and Spatial Effects of A “City-County Merger” on Housing Prices—Evidence from Fuyang," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-26, February.
    15. Yu, Lijie & Cui, Mengying, 2023. "How subway network affects transit accessibility and equity: A case study of Xi'an metropolitan area," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    16. Mustafa Ozan Yıldırım & Mehmet İvrendi, 2017. "House Prices And The Macroeconomic Environment In Turkey: The Examination Of A Dynamic Relationship," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 62(215), pages 81-110, October –.
    17. Ainur A. Akhmetzianov & Andrew Y. Sokolov, 2021. "Financial and Strategic Pricing Analysis in the Development Market Using an Econometric Model," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(1), pages 144-148, January.
    18. Andrew Adewale Alola & Uju Violet Alola, 2019. "The Dynamics of Tourism—Refugeeism on House Prices in Cyprus and Malta," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 521-536, May.
    19. Wendy Nyakabawo & Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2018. "High Frequency Impact Of Monetary Policy And Macroeconomic Surprises On Us Msas, Aggregate Us Housing Returns And Asymmetric Volatility," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 22(1), pages 204-229, December.
    20. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2023. "Forecasting House Prices: The Role of Fundamentals, Credit Conditions, and Supply Indicators," MPRA Paper 116819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Radoslaw Wolniak & Marcin Olkiewicz & Marta Szymczewska & Anna Olkiewicz, 2020. "The Functioning of the Real Estate Market: Dynamics of Price Formation and the Sale of Apartments," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 281-307.
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    24. Sala-Ríos, Mercé & Farré-Perdiguer, Mariona & Torres-Solé, Teresa, 2018. "How do Housing Prices and Business Cycles Interact in Spain? An Empirical Analysis/¿Cómo interactúan los precios de la vivienda y el ciclo económico en España? Un análisis empírico," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 36, pages 897-920, Septiembr.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global housing market; Trend-cycle decomposition; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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