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Downside risk and stock returns: An empirical analysis of the long-run and short-run dynamics from the G-7 Countries

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  • Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan
  • Chiang, Thomas C.
  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl

Abstract

This paper presents presents presents a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregression (FCVAR) (FCVAR) (FCVAR) (FCVAR) model to examine to examine to examine to examine to examine to examine to examine various relations between stock returns and downside risk. Evidence from major advanced markets markets markets markets supports the supports the notion that notion that notion that downside risk measured by value value value-at -risk ( risk (VaRVaRVaR) has significant information content content that reflects that reflects that reflects that reflects that reflects lagged long-run variance and higher moments of risk for for predict redict ing stock returns. stock returns. stock returns. stock returns. The e The e vidence vidence vidence supports the positive tradeoff hypothesis and and the leverage effect leverage effect leverage in the long in the long in the long run and and for markets in the short run. We find that US downside risk accounts for 54.36% of price discovery, whereas the whereas the whereas the whereas the own effect from own effect from the country itself only 27.06%.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Chiang, Thomas C. & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2016. "Downside risk and stock returns: An empirical analysis of the long-run and short-run dynamics from the G-7 Countries," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-001, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2016-001
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    Cited by:

    1. Søren Johansen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2018. "Testing the CVAR in the Fractional CVAR Model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 836-849, November.
    2. Li Guo & Lin Peng & Yubo Tao & Jun Tu, 2017. "Joint News, Attention Spillover,and Market Returns," Papers 1703.02715, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    downside risk; value-at-risk; long memory; fractional integration; risk-return;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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