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Coherence of Output Gaps in the Euro Area: The Impact of the Covid-19 Shock

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Listed:
  • Jakob de Haan
  • Jan P.A.M. Jacobs
  • Renske Zijm

Abstract

Using the measures proposed by Mink et al. (2012), we reexamine the coherence of business cycles in the euro area using a long sample period. We also analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business cycle coherence and examine whether our measures for business cycle coherence indicate a core versus periphery within EMU. Our results suggest that business cycle coherence did not increase monotonically. The COVID-19 pandemic made that the signs of the output gaps of euro area countries became more similar, but we find large differences in the amplitude of the output gaps across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakob de Haan & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Renske Zijm, 2022. "Coherence of Output Gaps in the Euro Area: The Impact of the Covid-19 Shock," CESifo Working Paper Series 9654, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9654
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Saulius Jokubaitis & Dmitrij Celov, 2022. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EU: A Regional-Sectoral Look through Soft-Clustering and Wavelet Decomposition," Papers 2206.14128, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19 crisis; business cycle coherence; synchronization; output gaps; euro area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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