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Recent Inflationary Trends in World Commodities Markets

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  • Mr. Noureddine Krichene

Abstract

Expansionary monetary policies in key industrial countries and sharply depreciating U.S. dollar exchange rate sent commodities prices soaring at unprecedented rates during 2003-2007. Food prices rose to alarming levels threatening malnutrition and food riots. In contrast, consumer price indices, a leading indicator for monetary policy, were showing almost no inflation and posed a price puzzle insofar their evolution was not responsive to record low interest rates, double digit commodities inflation, and sharp exchange rate depreciation. Commodities prices were shown to be driven by one common trend, identified as a monetary shock. Policy makers may have to face a policy dilemma: maintain monetary policy stance with accelerating commodities price inflation, subsequent world recession, and financial disorder; or tighten monetary policy with subsequent world recession followed by recovery and financial and price stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Noureddine Krichene, 2008. "Recent Inflationary Trends in World Commodities Markets," IMF Working Papers 2008/130, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/130
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    Cited by:

    1. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2009. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 838-851, November.
    2. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy: The Case of Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 347, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    3. Moncarz, Pedro & Barone, Sergio & Descalzi, Ricardo, 2018. "Shocks to the international prices of agricultural commodities and the effects on welfare and poverty. A simulation of the ex ante long-run effects for Uruguay," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 136-155.
    4. Yip, Pick Schen & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan, 2017. "Dynamic spillover between commodities and commodity currencies during United States Q.E," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 399-410.
    5. Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Onorante, Luca, 2010. "Food price pass-through in the euro area The role of asymmetries and non-linearities," Working Paper Series 1168, European Central Bank.
    6. Njimanted Godfrey Forgha & Molem Christopher Sama & Elvis Dze Achuo, 2015. "Petroleum Products Price Fluctuations and Economic Growth in Cameroon," Growth, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 2(2), pages 30-40.
    7. Njegovan Nikola & Simin Mirela Tomaš, 2020. "Inflation and Prices of Agricultural Products," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 58(2), pages 203-217, June.
    8. Pedro Moncarz & Sergio Barone & Germán Calfat & Ricardo Descalzi, 2017. "Poverty Impacts of Changes in the International Prices of Agricultural Commodities: Recent Evidence for Argentina (An Ex-Ante Analysis)," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(3), pages 375-395, March.
    9. Feng Lu & Yuanfang Li, 2009. "China’s Factor in Recent Global Commodity Price and Shipping Freight Volatilities," Trade Working Papers 22889, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    10. Shittu, Adebayo M. & Akerele, Dare & Haile, Mekbib, 2017. "Food Price Spikes and Volatility in Local Food Markets in Nigeria," Discussion Papers 263293, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    11. Florian Verheyen, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices and Infl ation – Empirical Evidence from the US," Ruhr Economic Papers 0216, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Verheyen, Florian, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices and Infl ation – Empirical Evidence from the US," Ruhr Economic Papers 216, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    13. Indrė Lapinskaitė & Algita Miečinskienė, 2019. "Assessment of the Impact of Hard Commodity Prices Changes on Inflation in European Union Countries," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(5), pages 18-35.
    14. repec:zbw:rwirep:0216 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Moncarz, Pedro & Barone, Sergio & Calfat, Germán & Descalzi, Ricardo, 2014. "Poverty impacts of changes in the price of agricultural commodities: recent evidence for Argentina," IOB Working Papers 2014.09, Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy (IOB).

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