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Natural volatility, welfare and taxation

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  • Posch, Olaf
  • Wälde, Klaus

Abstract

Cyclical components are analytically computed in a theoretical model of stochastic endogenous fluctuations and growth. Volatility is shown to depend on the speed of convergence of the cyclical component, the expected length of a cycle and on the altitude of the slump. Taxes affect these channels and can therefore explain cross-country differences and breaks over time in volatility. With exogenous sources of fluctuations, a special case of our model, decentralized factor allocation is efficient. With endogenous fluctuations and growth, decentralized factor allocation is inefficient and (time-invariant) taxes can (de-) stabilize the economy. No unambiguous link exists between volatility and welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Posch, Olaf & Wälde, Klaus, 2005. "Natural volatility, welfare and taxation," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 57, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:57
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    Cited by:

    1. Posch, Olaf, 2009. "Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 196-210, December.
    2. Heijdra, B.J. & Ligthart, J.E., 2006. "Fiscal Policy, Monopolistic Competition and Finite Lives," Other publications TiSEM 9e765b06-aa23-4598-b139-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Gary D. Hansen, "undated". "Why Have Business Cycle Fluctuations Become Less Volatile? (with Andres Arias and Lee E. Ohanian)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 416, UCLA Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous fluctuations and growth; welfare analysis; taxation; stochastic continuous time model; Poisson uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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