IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/4200.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Terrorist murder, cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks in New York City during the last two centuries

Author

Listed:
  • Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo

Abstract

: I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of murder of New York City – NYC (1797-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, breakdowns in social order, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and recently with the periodic terrorist attacks in the city. The estimated cyclical terrorist murder component warns that terrorist attacks in New York City from 1826 to 2005, historically occur in the estimated turning point dates, of whether a declining, or ascending cycle, and so, it must be used in future research to construct a model for explaining the causal reasons for its movement across time, and for forecasting terrorist murder and attacks for New York City.

Suggested Citation

  • Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2007. "Terrorist murder, cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks in New York City during the last two centuries," MPRA Paper 4200, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Feb 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4200
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4200/1/MPRA_paper_4200.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    4. Newbold, Paul, 1990. "Precise and efficient computation of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 453-457, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gómez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2006. "Decomposing violence: terrorist murder and attacks in New York State from 1933 to 2005," MPRA Paper 3776, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jul 2007.
    2. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A & Soto, Raimundo, 1997. "Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Sub-Saharan Africa and Other Developing Countries," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 6(3), pages 74-120, Supplemen.
    3. Hossain, Ferdaus, 1995. "Current account determination in the intertemporal framework: an empirical analysis," ISU General Staff Papers 1995010108000011939, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2006. "Decomposing violence: terrorist murder in the twentieth century in the U.S," MPRA Paper 1145, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Nov 2006.
    5. Gómez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2007. "Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Oklahoma," MPRA Paper 5095, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Sep 2007.
    6. Gómez-sorzano, Gustavo, 2007. "Terrorist murder, cycles of violence, and attacks index for the City of Philadelphia during the last two centuries," MPRA Paper 4783, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Sep 2007.
    7. Gómez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2007. "Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Washington," MPRA Paper 4604, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Aug 2007.
    8. Beyaert, Arielle & Quesada Medina, Alfonso J., 2001. "Computation of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition in the case of cointegrated systems with I(0) variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 283-289, September.
    9. Gómez-sorzano, Gustavo, 2007. "Cycles of violence, and attacks index for the State of Florida," MPRA Paper 4941, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Sep 2007.
    10. GOMEZ-SORZANO, Gustavo Alejandro, 2007. "Decomposing Violence: Crime Cycles In The Twentieth Century In The United States," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
    11. Gómez-sorzano, Gustavo, 2007. "Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Missouri," MPRA Paper 4940, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Sep 2007.
    12. Schlitzer, Giuseppe, 1995. "Testing the stationarity of economic time series: further Monte Carlo evidence," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 125-144, June.
    13. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Unit Roots," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 998, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    14. Gómez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2007. "Cycles of violence and terrorist attacks index for the State of Arizona," MPRA Paper 4360, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Aug 2007.
    15. Perron, Pierre, 1992. "Racines unitaires en macroéconomie : le cas d’une variable," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 325-356, mars et j.
    16. Gómez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2007. "Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Arkansas," MPRA Paper 4606, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Aug 2007.
    17. Gómez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2006. "Using the Beveridge & Nelson decomposition of economic time series for pointing out the occurrence of terrorist attacks," MPRA Paper 3388, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Mar 2007.
    18. Gómez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2006. "Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Ohio," MPRA Paper 4605, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Aug 2007.
    19. Gómez-sorzano, Gustavo, 2007. "Cycles of violence, riots, and terrorist attacks index for the State of California," MPRA Paper 4547, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Aug 2007.
    20. Gómez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2007. "Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Michigan," MPRA Paper 5094, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Sep 2007.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model of cyclical terrorist murder for Colombia; 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019; the econometrics of violence; terrorism; and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019; scenarios for sustainable peace in Colombia by year 2019; decomposing violence: crime cycles in the twentieth in the United States; using the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series for pointing out the occurrence of terrorist attacks; decomposing violence: terrorist murder; and attacks in New York State from 1933 to 2005;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4200. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.