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What drives investors' behaviour in different FX market segments? A VAR-based return decomposition analysis

Author

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  • Castrén, Olli
  • Osbat, Chiara
  • Sydow, Matthias

Abstract

We apply the Campbell-Shiller return decomposition to exchange rate returns and fundamentals in a stationary panel vector autoregression framework. The return decomposition is then used to analyse how different investor segments react to news as captured by the different return components. The results suggest that intrinsic value news are dominating for equity investors and speculative money market investors while investors in currency option markets react strongly to expected return news. The equity and speculative money market investors seem able to distinguish between transitory and permanent FX movements while options investors mainly focus on transitory movements. We also find evidence that offsetting impact on the various return components can blur the effect of macroeconomic data releases on aggregate FX excess returns. JEL Classification: C23, F31, F32, G15

Suggested Citation

  • Castrén, Olli & Osbat, Chiara & Sydow, Matthias, 2006. "What drives investors' behaviour in different FX market segments? A VAR-based return decomposition analysis," Working Paper Series 706, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006706
    Note: 261931
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Hiebert, Paul & Sydow, Matthias, 2009. "What drives returns to euro area housing? Evidence from a dynamic dividend-discount model," Working Paper Series 1019, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FX return prediction; investor flows; news surprises; panel estimation; stationary VAR.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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