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Local mispricing and microstructural noise: A parametric perspective

Author

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  • Andersen, Torben G.
  • Archakov, Ilya
  • Cebiroglu, Gökhan
  • Hautsch, Nikolaus

Abstract

We extend the classic ”martingale-plus-noise” model for high-frequency returns to accommodate an error correction mechanism and endogenous pricing errors. It is motivated by (i) novel empirical evidence documenting that microstructure noise exhibits frequently changing patterns of serial dependence which are interwoven with innovations to the efficient price; (ii) building a bridge between high-frequency econometrics and market microstructure models. We identify temporal pricing error correction and noise endogeneity as complementary components driving high-frequency dynamics and inducing two separate regimes, characterized by the sign of the return serial correlation and an implied bias in realized variance estimates. We document frequent fluctuations between these regimes, which can be associated with price discovery in a setting with incomplete information and learning. The model links critical concepts from high-frequency statistics and market microstructure theory, suggesting new avenues for volatility estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersen, Torben G. & Archakov, Ilya & Cebiroglu, Gökhan & Hautsch, Nikolaus, 2022. "Local mispricing and microstructural noise: A parametric perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 510-534.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:230:y:2022:i:2:p:510-534
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.06.006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility estimation; Market microstructure noise; Price reversal; Momentum; Contrarian trading;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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