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Cálculo del PIB Potencial en Colombia.:1970-2003

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  • Jorge Iván RODRIGUEZ MUNOZ
  • Juan Ricardo PERILLA JIMENEZ
  • José Daniel REYES PEÑA

Abstract

Este trabajo estima el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) potencial bajo diferentes metodologías y periodicidad de las series estadísticas utilizadas. Particularmente se analiza sobre una base de datos trimestral la relación existente entre el empleo y el producto y la relación capital-producto y sobre series con periodicidad anual se emplean funciones de producción tipo Cobb-Douglas y CES. Para estas dos últimas alternativas se calculan dos escenarios de acuerdo a si existe una tasa natural de desempleo en Colombia o a si existe un proceso de histéresis en el mercado laboral colombiano. Finalmente, se utilizan las estimaciones obtenidas en las funciones de producción para hacer proyecciones sobre el crecimiento del PIB observado y el PIB potencial para el ano 2004. Se concluye que las estimaciones de PIB potencial no difieren demasiado entre las dos funciones utilizadas, que existe evidencia de rendimientos constantes a escala para la economía colombiana, y que actualmente la economía se encuentra por debajo de su PIB potencial, pero que se aproxima a él. Finalmente, el pronóstico del crecimiento del PIB para el 2004, según las metodologías exploradas en este artículo, estarían en el rango de 3.8% a 4.4%.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Iván RODRIGUEZ MUNOZ & Juan Ricardo PERILLA JIMENEZ & José Daniel REYES PEÑA, 2004. "Cálculo del PIB Potencial en Colombia.:1970-2003," Archivos de Economía 2078, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000118:002078
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Adolfo Cobo, 2005. "Output Gap In Colombia: An Eclectic Approach," Borradores de Economia 3310, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Adolfo L.Cobo, 2005. "Output Gap in Colombia: An Eclectic Approach," Borradores de Economia 327, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Mauricio Santa María & Jesús Prlando Gracia F., 2007. "Productivity in Colombia: Looking at the main stylized facts and some new hypotheses," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, June.

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    Función de Producción;

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