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The business cycle: periodic pandemic or rollercoaster ride?

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  • James Morley

    (University of Sydney)

Abstract

I selectively survey the literature on business cycle asymmetry to consider theoretical sources of asymmetry, policy implications, empirical evidence, and further issues around the idea that recessions are more like “periodic pandemics” than the inevitable downturn after an expansionary climb on a “rollercoaster ride”.

Suggested Citation

  • James Morley, 2019. "The business cycle: periodic pandemic or rollercoaster ride?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 425-431, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijoeps:v:13:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s42495-019-00023-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s42495-019-00023-z
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    9. repec:fth:harver:1418 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Chang‐Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2005. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 291-309.
    11. Marine Carrasco & Liang Hu & Werner Ploberger, 2014. "Optimal Test for Markov Switching Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 765-784, March.
    12. Fazzari Steven M. & Morley James & Panovska Irina, 2015. "State-dependent effects of fiscal policy," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 285-315, June.
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    14. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2012. "The Asymmetric Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 208-221, February.
    15. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(2), pages 433-494.
    16. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    17. Chang‐Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2007. "The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 187-204, February.
    18. Chang-Jin Kim & Christian J. Murray, 2002. "Permanent and transitory components of recessions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 163-183.
    19. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    20. Morley, James & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "Trend/cycle decomposition of regime-switching processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 220-226, October.
    21. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc27-1, June.
    22. James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 831-843, December.
    23. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2022. "Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated since the Great Recession?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 246-258, May.
    24. Domenico Ferraro & Giuseppe Fiori, 2018. "The Scarring Effect of Asymmetric Business Cycles," 2018 Meeting Papers 283, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    25. Lo, Ming Chien & Piger, Jeremy, 2005. "Is the Response of Output to Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Regime-Switching Coefficients Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 865-886, October.
    26. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Introductory pages to "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting, pages -23, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2022. "Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated since the Great Recession?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 246-258, May.
    2. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2021. "Recession-specific recoveries: L’s, U’s and everything in between," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    3. Donayre, Luiggi, 2022. "On the behavior of Okun's law across business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Elroukh, Ahmed W. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Panovska, Irina, 2020. "A look at jobless recoveries in G7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle asymmetry; Trend-cycle decomposition; State-dependent fiscal and monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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