IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocsan/23-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Julien Champagne
  • Christopher Hajzler
  • Dmitry Matveev
  • Harlee Melinchuk
  • Antoine Poulin-Moore
  • Kemal Ozhan
  • Youngmin Park
  • Temel Taskin

Abstract

We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Champagne & Christopher Hajzler & Dmitry Matveev & Harlee Melinchuk & Antoine Poulin-Moore & Kemal Ozhan & Youngmin Park & Temel Taskin, 2023. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2023-6, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:23-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/san2023-6.pdf
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    2. Guyllaume Faucher & Christopher Hajzler & Martin Kuncl & Dmitry Matveev & Youngmin Park & Temel Taskin, 2022. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-3, Bank of Canada.
    3. Cristina Constantinescu & Aaditya Mattoo & Michele Ruta, 2020. "The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(1), pages 121-142.
    4. Laurence Ball, 2014. "Long-term damage from the Great Recession in OECD countries," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 149-160, September.
    5. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
    6. Russell Barnett, 2007. "Trend Labour Supply in Canada: Implications of Demographic Shifts and the Increasing Labour Force Attachment of Women," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2007(Summer), pages 5-18.
    7. Salma Ahmed & Aviel Avshalumov & Tania Chaar & Eshini Ekanayake & Helen Lao & Louis Poirier & Jenna Rolland-Mills & Argyn Toktamyssov & Lin Xiang, 2023. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023," Staff Analytical Notes 2023-5, Bank of Canada.
    8. Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & José Dorich, 2019. "The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-11, Bank of Canada.
    9. Christine Arriola & Charles Cadestin & Przemyslaw Kowalski & Joaquim José Martins Guilhoto & Sébastien Miroudot & Frank van Tongeren, 2023. "Challenges to international trade and the global economy: Recovery from COVID-19 and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine," OECD Trade Policy Papers 265, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Erik Ens & Kurt See & Corinne Luu, 2023. "Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2023 update," Staff Analytical Notes 2023-7, Bank of Canada.
    2. Panagiotis Bouras & Joaquín Saldain & Xing Guo & Thomas Michael Pugh & Maria teNyenhuis, 2024. "Impacts of interest rate hikes on the consumption of households with a mortgage," Staff Analytical Notes 2024-14, Bank of Canada.
    3. Marc-André Gosselin & Sharon Kozicki, 2023. "Making It Real: Bringing Research Models into Central Bank Projections," Discussion Papers 2023-29, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    2. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2022. "Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated since the Great Recession?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 246-258, May.
    3. Valerie Cerra & Antonio Fatás & Sweta C. Saxena, 2023. "Hysteresis and Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 181-225, March.
    4. Li, Mengheng & Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2024. "Dynamic hysteresis effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    5. Castillo, Luis & Florián, David, 2019. "Measuring the output gap, potential output growth and natural interest rate from a semi-structural dynamic model for Peru," Working Papers 2019-012, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    6. Xiaoshan Chen & Terence Mills, 2012. "Measuring the Euro area output gap using a multivariate unobserved components model containing phase shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 671-692, October.
    7. repec:dau:papers:123456789/12185 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gabriel RODRIGUEZ, 2010. "Estimating Output Gap, Core Inflation, And The Nairu For Peru, 1979-2007," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(1).
    9. Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2002. "Exchange rate dynamics in Indonesia: 1980-1998," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 545-563.
    10. Henin Pierre-yves & Jobert Thomas, 1991. "An okun's law approach to unemployment persistence," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9108, CEPREMAP.
    11. Tara M. Sinclair, 2009. "The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2‐3), pages 529-542, March.
    12. Yu-Fan Huang & Sui Luo, 2018. "Potential output and inflation dynamics after the Great Recession," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 495-517, September.
    13. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The reliability of Canadian output-gap estimates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 373-393, December.
    14. Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2023. "Business Cycles and Low-Frequency Fluctuations in the US Unemployment Rate," Working Papers 23-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    15. Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin‐Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "The Real‐Time Properties of the Bank of Canada's Staff Output Gap Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1167-1188, September.
    16. Magnus Reif, 2022. "Time‐Varying Dynamics of the German Business Cycle: A Comprehensive Investigation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 80-102, February.
    17. Claudio BorioBy & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2017. "Rethinking potential output: embedding information about the financial cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 655-677.
    18. Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2010. "Using A Forward-Looking Phillips Curve to Estimate the Output Gap in Peru," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 6(1-2), pages 1-13, April.
    19. Lee, Jim, 2000. "The Robustness of Okun's Law: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 331-356, April.
    20. Vashchelyuk, N.V. (Ващелюк, Н.В.) & Zubarev, Andrey (Зубарев, Андрей) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2016. "Determination of the Output Gap for the Russian Economy [Определение Разрыва Выпуска Для Российской Экономики]," Working Papers 2137, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    21. Perron, Pierre, 1992. "Racines unitaires en macroéconomie : le cas d’une variable," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 325-356, mars et j.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic models; Interest rates; Labour markets; Monetary policy; Potential output; Productivity.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:23-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.