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Shocks

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  • John H. Cochrane

Abstract

What are the shocks that drive economic fluctuations? I examine technology and money shocks in some detail, and briefly review the evidence on oil price and credit shocks. I conclude that none of these popular candidates accounts for the bulk of economic fluctuations. I then examine whether 'consumption shocks,' news that agents see but we do not, can account for fluctuations. I find that it may be possible to construct models with this feature, though it is more difficult than is commonly realized. If this view is correct, we will forever remain ignorant of the fundamental causes of economic fluctuations.

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  • John H. Cochrane, 1994. "Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4698
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    Cited by:

    1. Jinzhu Chen & Prakash Kannan & Prakash Loungani & Bharat Trehan, 2012. "New evidence on cyclical and structural sources of unemployment," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue March, pages 1-23.
    2. Makoto Nirei, 2004. "Lumpy Investment, Sectoral Propagation, and Business Cycles," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 330, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Thapar, Aditi, 2008. "Using private forecasts to estimate the effects of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 806-824, May.
    4. Prakash Loungani & Bharat Trehan, 1997. "Explaining unemployment: sectoral vs aggregate shocks," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-15.
    5. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2005. "Common stationary and non-stationary factors in the euro area analyzed in a large-scale factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,02, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Christian Ragacs & Martin Zagler, 2002. "Persistence of Shocks to Output in Austria and Theories of Economic Growth," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 305-317, December.

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