IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_894.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Re-examination of the Link between Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rate Differentials

Author

Listed:
  • Mathias Hoffmann
  • Ronald MacDonald

Abstract

The real exchange rate - real interest rate (RERI) relationship is central to most open economy macroeconomic models. However, empirical support for the relationship, especially when cointegrationbased methods are used, is rather weak. In this paper we reinvestigate the RERI relationship using bilateral real exchange rate data spanning the period 1978 to 1997. We first clarify the logic of applying cointegration methods to the RERI and propose an alternative way of testing the relationship. We demonstrate that the failure of earlier analyses to detect a stationary real interest rate is largely due to the low power of the tests employed.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathias Hoffmann & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "A Re-examination of the Link between Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rate Differentials," CESifo Working Paper Series 894, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_894
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo_wp894.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    2. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 121-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    6. Neary, Peter, 1988. "Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 210-215, March.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-153, March.
    8. Cletus C. Coughlin & Kees G. Koedijk, 1990. "What do we know about the long-run real exchange rate?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 36-48.
    9. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    10. Baxter, Marianne, 1994. "Real exchange rates and real interest differentials: Have we missed the business-cycle relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 5-37, February.
    11. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569.
    12. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    13. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
    14. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February.
    15. John F. O. Bilson & Richard C. Marston, 1984. "Exchange Rate Theory and Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bils84-1, June.
    16. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    17. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    18. Proietti, Tommaso, 1997. "Short-Run Dynamics in Cointegrated Systems," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(3), pages 405-422, August.
    19. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:4:p:933-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    21. Edison, Hali J. & Pauls, B. Dianne, 1993. "A re-assessment of the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates: 1974-1990," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 165-187, April.
    22. Edison, Hali J & Melick, William R, 1999. "Alternative Approaches to Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rates: Three Up and Three Down," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 93-111, April.
    23. Michael L. Mussa, 1984. "The Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 13-78, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    25. MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "What determines real exchange rates?: The long and the short of it," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 117-153, June.
    26. Devereux, Michael B. & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate volatility, and exchange rate disconnect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 913-940, July.
    27. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "Liquidity and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 339-352, May.
    28. Georgios E. Chortareas & Rebecca L. Driver, 2001. "PPP and the real exchange rate-real interest rate differential puzzle revisited: evidence from non-stationary panel data," Bank of England working papers 138, Bank of England.
    29. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
    30. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2002. "Currency Returns, Institutional Investor Flows, and Exchange Rate Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 9080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    32. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    33. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1991. "Structural Determinants of Real Exchange Rates and National Price Levels: Some Empirical Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 325-334, March.
    34. Meese, R. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Ralation Over The Modern Floating-Rate Period," Working papers 368, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    35. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2009. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism In Central And Eastern Europe: Surveying The Surveyable," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 277-327, April.
    2. Patrick Minford & David Peel, 2007. "On the Equality of Real Interest Rates Across Borders in Integrated Capital Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 119-125, February.
    3. Li, Jianfeng & Lu, Xinsheng & Jiang, Wei & Petrova, Vanya S., 2021. "Multifractal Cross-correlations between foreign exchange rates and interest rate spreads," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
    4. Weißbach, Rafael & Ponyatovskyy, Vladyslav & Zimmermann, Guido, 2006. "The Yield of Ten-Year T-Bonds: Stumbling Towards a 'Good' Forecast," Technical Reports 2006,50, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    5. Deng-Kui SI & Xiao-Lin LI & Tsangyao CHANG & Lu BAI, 2018. "Co-movement and Causality between Nominal Exchange Rates and Interest Rate Differentials in BRICS Countries: A Wavelet Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 5-19, December.
    6. Jesús Ferreyra & Jorge Salas, 2006. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Peru: BEER Models and Confidence Band Building," Working Papers 2006-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    7. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," MNB Working Papers 2006/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    8. Mylonidis, Nikolaos & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2011. "The real uncovered interest parity: The case of Canada and the USA," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-267, March.
    9. Dette, Holger & Weißbach, Rafael, 2006. "A Bootstrap Test for the Comparison of Nonlinear Time Series - with Application to Interest Rate Modelling," Technical Reports 2006,30, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    10. Catherine S. F. Ho & M. Ariff, 2008. "The Role of Non-Parity Fundamentals in Exchange Rate Determination: Australia and the Asia Pacific Region," CARF F-Series CARF-F-125, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hoffmann, M. & MacDonald, R., 2001. "A real differential view of equilibrium real exchange rate," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0103, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    2. Hoffmann, Mathias & MacDonald, Ronald, 2009. "Real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials: A present value interpretation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 952-970, November.
    3. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hoffmann, M. & MacDonald, R., 2001. "A real differential view of equilibrium real exchange rate," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 103, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    5. Byrne, Joseph P. & Nagayasu, Jun, 2010. "Structural breaks in the real exchange rate and real interest rate relationship," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 138-151.
    6. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:28:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 1999. "Predicting real exchange rates from real interest rate differentials and net foreign asset stocks: evidence for the mark/dollar parity," Kiel Working Papers 962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Taylor Mark P. & Sarno Lucio, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies: A Nonlinear Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-26, October.
    9. Mylonidis, Nikolaos & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2011. "The real uncovered interest parity: The case of Canada and the USA," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-267, March.
    10. Megumi Kubota, "undated". "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers 09/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
    11. Ronald MacDonald, 2002. "Modelling the Long–run Real Effective Exchange Rate of the New Zealand Dollar," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 519-537, December.
    12. John H. Rogers, 1995. "Real shocks and real exchange rates in really long-term data," International Finance Discussion Papers 493, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Clark, Peter B. & MacDonald, Ronald, 2004. "Filtering the BEER: A permanent and transitory decomposition," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-56.
    14. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
    15. Giancarlo Corsetti & Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2012. "What Drives US Foreign Borrowing? Evidence on the External Adjustment to Transitory and Permanent Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1062-1092, April.
    16. Charles Engel, 2016. "Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(2), pages 436-474, February.
    17. Mr. Ronald MacDonald & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2001. "PPP and the Balassa Samuelson Effect: The Role of the Distribution Sector," IMF Working Papers 2001/038, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Debabrata Bagchi & Georgios E. Chortareas & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "The Real Exchange Rate in Small, Open, Developed Economies: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(248), pages 76-88, March.
    19. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2004. "Are Real Interest Differentials Caused by Frictions in Goods or Assets Markets, Real or Nominal Shocks?," Studies in Economics 0407, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    20. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2004. "Fractional cointegration and real exchange rates," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(4), pages 327-340.
    21. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real exchange rates; real interest rates; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_894. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.