On the prevalence of trends in primary commodity prices
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
- West, Kenneth D., 1987. "A note on the power of least squares tests for a unit root," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 249-252.
- Pierre Perron & Serena Ng, 1996.
"Useful Modifications to some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and their Local Asymptotic Properties,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 63(3), pages 435-463.
- Perron, P. & Ng, S., 1994. "Useful Modifications to Some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and Their Local Asymptotic Properties," Cahiers de recherche 9427, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Perron, P. & Ng, S., 1994. "Useful Modifications to Some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and Their Local Asymptotic Properties," Cahiers de recherche 9427, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001.
"LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- D. Sapsford & P. Sarkar & H. W. Singer, 1992. "The prebisch‐singer terms of trade controversy revisited," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 315-332, May.
- Sapsford, D, 1985. "The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures: A Comment and Some Additional Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 781-788, September.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-174, Summer.
- Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J., "undated". "Level Shifts and Purchasing Power Parity," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics levshift, Boston College Department of Economics.
- N. G. Shephard & A. C. Harvey, 1990. "On The Probability Of Estimating A Deterministic Component In The Local Level Model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 339-347, July.
- Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992.
"Searching for a Break in GNP,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-250, July.
- Lawrence J. Christiano, 1988. "Searching For a Break in GNP," NBER Working Papers 2695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul Newbold & Tony Rayner & Neil Kellard, 2000. "Long‐Run Drift, Co‐Movement and Persistence in Real Wheat and Maize Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 106-121, January.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
- Pierre Perron, 1994. "Trend, Unit Root and Structural Change in Macroeconomic Time Series," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: B. Bhaskara Rao (ed.), Cointegration, chapter 4, pages 113-146, Palgrave Macmillan.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
- Tae‐Hwan Kim & Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Tony Rayner & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Testing for Linear Trend with Application to Relative Primary Commodity Prices," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 539-551, September.
- Dan Ben-David & Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 2003.
"Unit roots, postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: Evidence from two structural breaks,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 303-319, April.
- Ben-David, D. & Lumsdaine, L.R. & Papell, D.H., 1996. "Unit Roots Postwar Slowdowns and Long-Run Growth: Evidence from Two Structural Breaks," Papers 33-96, Tel Aviv.
- Dan Ben-David & Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1998. "Unit Roots, Postwar Slowdowns and Long-Run Growth: Evidence from Two Structural Breaks," NBER Working Papers 6397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bleaney, Michael F & Greenaway, David, 1993. "Long-Run Trends in the Relative Price of Primary Commodities and in the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 349-363, July.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-270, July.
- Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "ZIVOT: RATS procedure to perform Zivot-Andrews Unit Root Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00236, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Peter Wickham, 1994.
"Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?,"
IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 175-213, June.
- Mr. Peter Wickham & Ms. Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Working Papers 1994/007, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Wickham, Peter, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," MPRA Paper 8173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Wickham, Peter, 1994. "Non-oil commodity prices: Cyclical weakness or secular decline?," MPRA Paper 13871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Thirlwall, A. P. & Bergevin, J., 1985. "Trends, cycles and asymmetries in the terms of trade of primary commodities from developed and less developed countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 13(7), pages 805-817, July.
- Javier León & Raimundo Soto, 1997.
"Structural Breaks And Long-Run Trends In Commodity Prices,"
Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 347-366.
- Leon, Javier & Soto, Raimundo, 1995. "Structural breaks and long-run trends in commodity prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1406, The World Bank.
- Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992.
"Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
- Anindya Banerjee & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1990. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997.
"Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "LPUNIT: RATS procedure to implement Lumsdaine-Papell unit root test with structural breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00110, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989.
"The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Joel Popkin, 1974. "Commodity Prices and the U.S. Price Level," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 5(1), pages 249-260.
- Cuddington, John T., 1992. "Long-run trends in 26 primary commodity prices : A disaggregated look at the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 207-227, October.
- Powell, Andrew, 1991.
"Commodity and Developing Country Terms of Trade: What Does the Long Run Show?,"
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1485-1496, November.
- Powell, A., 1989. "Commodity And Developing Country Terms Of Trade, What Does The Long Run Show?," Economics Series Working Papers 9980, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992.
"Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
- Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991. "Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity," Papers 359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean: Corrections and Extensions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 467-470, October.
- Bloch, Harry & Sapsford, David, 1997. "Some estimates of Prebisch and Singer effects on the terms of trade between primary producers and manufacturers," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1873-1884, November.
- Cuddington, John T & Urzua, Carlos M, 1989. "Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 426-442, June.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Kellard, Neil & Mark E Wohar, 2003. "Trends and Persistence in Primary Commodity Prices," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 118, Royal Economic Society.
- Cuddington, John T. & Ludema, Rodney & Jayasuriya, Shamila A, 2002.
"Prebisch-Singer Redux,"
Working Papers
15857, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
- John T. Cuddington & Rodney Ludema & Shamila A Jayasuriya, 2002. "Prebisch-Singer Redux," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 140, Central Bank of Chile.
- Ghoshray, Atanu & Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Wohar, Mark E., 2011. "Breaking Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Further Investigation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 120387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Ghoshray, Atanu, 2011. "A reexamination of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 242-251, July.
- André Varella Mollick & João Ricardo Faria & Pedro H. Albuquerque & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2008.
"Can globalisation stop the decline in commodities' terms of trade?,"
Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 32(5), pages 683-701, September.
- Andre Varella Mollick & Joao Ricardo Faria & Pedro H. Albuquerque & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2005. "Can Globalisation Stop the Decline in Commodities' Terms of Trade? The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Revisited"," Studies in Economics 0510, School of Economics, University of Kent.
- André Varella Mollick & João Ricardo Faria & Pedro Albuquerque & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2008. "Can Globalisation Stop the Decline in Commodities' Terms of Trade?," Post-Print halshs-00746269, HAL.
- Joseph V. Balagtas & Matthew T. Holt, 2009.
"The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 87-105.
- Goodwin, Barry K. & Holt, Matthew T. & Prestemon, Jeffery P., 2008. "The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach," MPRA Paper 9684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Geronimi, Vincent & Taranco, Armand, 2018.
"Revisiting the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities (1900–2016). A dynamic regime approach,"
Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 329-339.
- Vincent Geronimi & Armand Taranco, 2018. "Revisiting the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities (1900–2016). A dynamic regime approach," Post-Print hal-02509926, HAL.
- Bilge Erten, 2010. "Industrial Upgrading and Export Diversification: A Comparative Analysis of Economic Policies in Turkey and Malaysia," Working Papers id:2778, eSocialSciences.
- Ana Iregui & Jesús Otero, 2013.
"The long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures: a panel data approach,"
Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(1), pages 35-56, April.
- Jesús Otero & Ana María Iregui, 2011. "The Long-Run Behaviour of the Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures: A Panel Data Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-071, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Iregui, Ana María & Otero, Jesús, 2013. "The long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures: A panel data approach," 87th Annual Conference, April 8-10, 2013, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 158682, Agricultural Economics Society.
- David Harvey & Neil Kellard & Jakob Madsen & Mark Wohar, 2012. "Trends and Cycles in Real Commodity Prices: 1650-2010," CEH Discussion Papers 010, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
- Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "Trends in international commodity prices: Panel unit root analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 441-451.
- Surajit Deb, 2003. "Terms of Trade and Supply Response of Indian Agriculture: Analysis in Cointegration Framework," Working papers 115, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
- Murat ASLAN & Saban NAZLIOGLU, 2018. "Do International Relative Commodity Prices Support the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis? A Nonlinear Panel Unit Root Testing," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 76-92, December.
- Winkelried, Diego, 2021.
"Unit roots in real primary commodity prices? A meta-analysis of the Grilli and Yang data set,"
Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
- Winkelried, Diego, 2017. "Unit roots in real primary commodity prices? A meta-analysis of the Grilli and Yang data set," Working Papers 2017-013, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
- Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Gokmenoglu, Korhan & Ekinci, Cagdas, 2013. "Persistence in crude oil spot and futures prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-37.
- Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2013.
"Unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks,"
Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 4, pages 61-94,
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2012. "Unit roots, nonlinearities and structural breaks," CREATES Research Papers 2012-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Otero, Jesús, 2011. "The Long-Run Behaviour of the Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures," WIDER Working Paper Series 071, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Shouvik Chakraborty & Prabirjit Sarkar, 2020. "From The Classical Economists To Empiricists: A Review Of The Terms Of Trade Controversy," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5), pages 1111-1133, December.
- Monojit Chatterji & Homagni Choudhury, 2010.
"Growth Rate Estimation in the presence of Unit Roots,"
Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics
245, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
- Chatterji, Monojit & Choudhury, Homagni, 2010. "Growth Rate Estimation in the presence of Unit Roots," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-92, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:79:y:2006:i:1:p:146-167. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.