IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sbe/breart/v39y2019i1a77132.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring Long Run Risks for Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Almeida, Caio
  • Brandao, Diego

Abstract

We study the temporal structure of risk prices, risk exposures and expected market returns for Brazil assuming the economy follows a long run risks model. The model consists on an endowment economy where aggregate consumption and dividend growth contain predictable components, and a representative agent has Epstein-Zin recursive preferences with CES specification. We show that aggregate consumption in Brazil is sufficiently predictable to generate risk premia associated with Epstein-Zin preferences in excess of traditional compensations induced by power utility. Moreover, risk compensation is dominated by permanent shocks both in the short and long run, as Epstein-Zin preferences mitigate the price of temporary shocks' risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Almeida, Caio & Brandao, Diego, 2019. "Measuring Long Run Risks for Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 39(1), July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbe:breart:v:39:y:2019:i:1:a:77132
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://periodicos.fgv.br/bre/article/view/77132
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ravi Bansal & Dana Kiku, 2011. "Cointegration and Long-Run Asset Allocation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 161-173, January.
    2. Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2013. "A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 1-33.
    3. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(1), pages 69-102.
    4. Bansal, Ravi & Kiku, Dana & Yaron, Amir, 2012. "An Empirical Evaluation of the Long-Run Risks Model for Asset Prices," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 183-221, January.
    5. Ravi Bansal & Robert Dittmar & Dana Kiku, 2009. "Cointegration and Consumption Risks in Asset Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1343-1375.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1249-1275, December.
    7. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-1273, November.
    8. John H. Cochrane, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 241-265.
    9. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    10. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887, Elsevier.
    12. repec:oup:rfinst:v:26:y::i:1:p:1-33 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heaton, John & Lee, Junghoon & Roussanov, Nikolai, 2007. "Intertemporal Substitution and Risk Aversion," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 61, Elsevier.
    14. Zhi Da, 2009. "Cash Flow, Consumption Risk, and the Cross‐section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 923-956, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Almeida, Caio & Cordeiro, Fernando, 2019. "Long-term Yields Implied by Stochastic Discount Factor Decompositions," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 39(1), July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sydney Ludvigson, 2008. "The Research Agenda: Sydney Ludvigson on Empirical Evaluation of Economic Theories of Risk Premia," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), April.
    2. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "An equilibrium model of the term structures of bonds and equities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani, 2015. "Measuring international business cycles by saving for a rainy day," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1266-1290, November.
    4. Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2013. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 799-906, Elsevier.
    5. Hoffmann, Mathias & MacDonald, Ronald, 2009. "Real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials: A present value interpretation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 952-970, November.
    6. Emi Nakamura & Dmitriy Sergeyev & Jón Steinsson, 2017. "Growth-Rate and Uncertainty Shocks in Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 1-39, January.
    7. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 79-138.
    8. Issler, Joao Victor & de Mello Franco-Neto, Afonso Arinos & de Carvalho Guillen, Osmani Teixeira, 2008. "The welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty in the post-war period," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 167-175, February.
    9. Campbell, John Y. & Giglio, Stefano & Polk, Christopher & Turley, Robert, 2018. "An intertemporal CAPM with stochastic volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 207-233.
    10. Calvet, Laurent E. & Czellar, Veronika, 2015. "Through the looking glass: Indirect inference via simple equilibria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 343-358.
    11. Márcio Antônio Salvato & João Victor Issler & Angelo Mont'alverne Duarte, 2005. "Are Business Cycles All Alike In Europe?," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 031, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    12. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani, 2010. "Measuring business cycles by saving for a rainy day," Globalization Institute Working Papers 50, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "Common cycles and the importance of transitory shocks to macroeconomic aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 449-475, June.
    14. Larry G. Epstein & Emmanuel Farhi & Tomasz Strzalecki, 2014. "How Much Would You Pay to Resolve Long-Run Risk?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2680-2697, September.
    15. Patrick Augustin & Roméo Tédongap, 2021. "Disappointment Aversion, Term Structure, and Predictability Puzzles in Bond Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(10), pages 6266-6293, October.
    16. Hengjie Ai & Mariano Max Croce & Anthony M Diercks & Kai Li, 2018. "News Shocks and the Production-Based Term Structure of Equity Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2423-2467.
    17. Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho & Issler, João Victor & Franco Neto, Afonso Arinos de Mello, 2012. "On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 734, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    18. Samuel M. Hartzmark, 2016. "Economic Uncertainty and Interest Rates," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 179-220.
    19. Demery, David & Duck, Nigel W., 2000. "Asymmetric Effects of Aggregate Demand: An Empirical Test of a Menu-Cost Model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 29-51, January.
    20. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sbe:breart:v:39:y:2019:i:1:a:77132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Núcleo de Computação da FGV EPGE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sbeeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.