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Business Cycle And Sectoral Fluctuations: A Nonlinear Model For Côte D’Ivoire

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  • AKA, Bédia F.

Abstract

Although the share of service sector in Côte d’Ivoire’s real GDP is higher than other sectors, it is widely recognized that the Ivorian economy is mainly based on agricultural sector and thus the fluctuations in this ‘motor’ sector could have a huge impact on the growth process of the country. We examine the issue of existence, identification and interaction of business cycle in Côte d’Ivoire’s GDP and compare its fluctuations with the disaggregated main economic sectors (agriculture, industry and service), by using a univariate Markov regime switching model and its multivariate version over the period 1970-2001. We found similarities and simultaneity of business cycle between the sectors of the economy. While the real GDP’s business cycle can be characterized, according to its mean duration (around 10 years) as a Juglar type cycle, the sectors’ cycles mean duration is shorter from 4 to 5 years.

Suggested Citation

  • AKA, Bédia F., 2009. "Business Cycle And Sectoral Fluctuations: A Nonlinear Model For Côte D’Ivoire," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1), pages 111-126.
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:9:y2009:i:1_7
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Economic Growth; Markov switching; Structural breaks; Time series analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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