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Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Michigan

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  • Gómez-Sorzano, Gustavo

Abstract

I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of per capita murder of Michigan State (1933-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part does not coincide with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and with the periodic terrorist attacks to the U.S. The estimated cyclical component of murder shows that terrorist attacks against the U.S. have not affected Michigan, presenting this State, along with Arkansas as immune to the suffering of the nation, and to the occurrence of attacks. The State appears as having a growing index of permanent murder. This paper belongs to the series of papers helping the U.S, and Homeland Security identify the closeness of terrorist attacks, and constructs the attacks index for Michigan. Other indices constructed include the Index for the U.S., New York State, New York City, Arizona, Massachusetts, California, Washington, Ohio, Philadelphia City, Arkansas, Missouri, Florida, and Oklahoma. These indices must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks and in models assessing the effects of terrorism over the U.S. economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Gómez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2007. "Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Michigan," MPRA Paper 5094, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Sep 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5094
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    A model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia; 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019; the econometrics of violence; terrorism; and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019; scenarios for sustainable peace in Colombia by year 2019; decomposing violence: terrorist murder in the twentieth in the United States; using the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series for pointing out the occurrence of terrorist attacks; terrorist murder; cycles of violence; and terrorist attacks in New York City during the last two centuries; and terrorist murder; cycles of violence; and attacks index for the City of Philadelphia during the last two centuries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

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