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Co‐Movement Of Australian State Business Cycles

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  • DAVID NORMAN
  • THOMAS WALKER

Abstract

We use a variety of techniques to examine the nature and degree of co‐movement among Australian state business cycles. Consistent with the results of Dixon and Shepherd (2001), we find that these cycles move quite closely together, with particularly strong links between the cycles of the larger states. We then seek to understand the causes of this co‐movement by using an unobserved components model to distinguish between various shocks and their transmission. Our model implies that the major source of this co‐movement in state activity is the commonality of shocks affecting state cycles. In contrast, spillovers of region‐specific shocks appear to play only a minor role in creating co‐movement, though region‐specific shocks themselves have a moderate influence on cyclical fluctuations. These findings are consistent with the results of recent studies for the United States, Canada and Europe, where common shocks have also been found to dominate regional cyclical activity.

Suggested Citation

  • David Norman & Thomas Walker, 2007. "Co‐Movement Of Australian State Business Cycles," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 360-374, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:46:y:2007:i:4:p:360-374
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8454.2007.00325.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Gatfaoui, Jamel & Girardin, Eric, 2015. "Comovement of Chinese provincial business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 294-306.
    2. Viv Hall & John McDermott, 2008. "An Unobserved Components Common Cycle For Australia? Implications For A Common Currency," CAMA Working Papers 2008-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Roberto Casarin & Komla Mawulom Agudze & Monica Billio & Eric Girardin, 2014. "Growth-cycle phases in China�s provinces: A panel Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2014:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    4. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2013. "Regional Dimensions of the Australian Business Cycle," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 264-281, February.
    5. Wang, Xiaoyu & Sun, Yanlin & Peng, Bin, 2023. "Industrial linkage and clustered regional business cycles in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 59-72.
    6. Aubrey Poon, 2018. "Assessing the Synchronicity and Nature of Australian State Business Cycles," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(307), pages 372-390, December.

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