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Potential output and inflation dynamics after the Great Recession

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  • Yu-Fan Huang

    (Capital University of Economics and Business)

  • Sui Luo

    (Capital University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

Ever since the end of the Great Recession, the US economy has experienced a period of mild inflation, which contradicts with the output–inflation relationship depicted by a traditional Phillips curve. This paper examines how the permanent output loss during the Great Recession has affected the ability of the Phillips curve to explain US inflation dynamics. We find great similarity among several established trend–cycle decomposition methods: potential output declined substantially after the Great Recession. Due to the fact that a lower level of potential output implies a lesser deflationary pressure, we then show that the Phillips curve does predict a period of mild inflation. This finding is largely consistent with the observed data.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu-Fan Huang & Sui Luo, 2018. "Potential output and inflation dynamics after the Great Recession," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 495-517, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:55:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1293-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-017-1293-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaeho Kim & Sora Chon, 2020. "Why are Bayesian trend-cycle decompositions of US real GDP so different?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1339-1354, March.
    2. Sergio Salas, 2022. "A liquidity crunch in an endogenous growth model with human capital," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(3), pages 1199-1238, January.
    3. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2022. "Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated since the Great Recession?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 246-258, May.
    4. Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2020. "A note on the stability of the Swedish Phillips curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2573-2612, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trend–cycle decomposition; Phillips curve; Potential output; Inflation dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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